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Thai "Inflation Rate Has Been Negative for the Past Six Months"?
Transcript of the above video:
As the title of this video suggests, we are discussing the inflation rate in Thailand. You know unfortunately in my opinion there's been a significant barrage if you will from foreign influencers trying to, I think undermine Thailand's Financial system for their own gain.
I thought of making this video after reading a recent article from the Bangkok Post, bangkokpost.com, the article is titled: Bank of Thailand chief says there is policy space on interest rates. Quoting directly: "The Bank of Thailand's new Governor Vitai Ratanakorn said on Friday that there is policy space on interest rates and that he would work to bring inflation back within range while ensuring there was no political interference in the Central Bank's operations."
Well first of all, that's like that whole notion the Fed, there should be no political interference back in the United States. Why? It pertains to us. The population has to deal with the monetary policies that these Central Banks impose. Why shouldn't there be some political "interference"? Why is it in every other arena there's people crying out for democracy and public input, but on this one not so much. It's "interference". That said, quoting further: "On Wednesday, the Central Bank cut its forecast for headline inflation this year to zero, from 0.5% previously. The inflation rate has been negative for the past 6 months" - note that again, “has been negative for the past 6 months”. Inflation is going down. - quoting further: "well below the Central Bank's target range of 1% to 3%."
So the Central Bank’s target range, they want inflation higher. I'm pretty sure if you talked to the man on the street here in Thailand, he probably wouldn't agree that that would be a good thing. And that's the thing you have to understand about Central Banks, in any jurisdiction; they have a different agenda from the man on the street. They just do. Inflation for banks and for bankers and for people in the financial system is a very different thing to the man on the street. To the man on the street, deflation in many ways can be kind of a good thing. To international financiers, deflation can be a bad thing under most scenarios. Now as I've just, as I have read and researched, and even discussed a little bit on this channel, yeah deflation itself can be problematic in many, many ways, so I am aware that Central Banks need to be aware of that. But after years of problematic inflation - especially coming off the COVID - is it really that bad of a thing that Thailand has had a few quarters where inflation is actually decreasing? I would argue not. And I have serious qualms about the idea that the Central Bank has it in their head they need to be raising inflation because as we've seen from the US, where they thought about doing that in the past, has it worked out real well? I think the proof is in the pudding. That being said, it remains to be seen how all of this plays out, and we will certainly be keeping you updated on this channel as the situation evolves.
