Transcript of the above video: 

Boy it has been a pretty eventful last couple of days here in Thailand. I like to take a minute at times like these; we did do a video on the Paetongtarn verdict where now former Prime Minister Paetongtarn Shinawatra was removed from Office. That thereby effectively removed the Cabinet placing it into a caretaker position, so we are in sort of holding pattern here at the moment as we await further developments to see who the new Government is going to be and led by whom. But I wanted to take about 36, 48 hours before making any new content on it because I wanted to see sort of how this was sort of gelling, and I think at this point we can make this video with some certainty as to what things are going to look like moving forward. 

As the title of this video suggests, it looks like Mr. Anutin Charnvirakul is poised to become the next Prime Minister here in Thailand. Let's go ahead and get into sources here. Quoting directly from the Bangkok Post, bangkokpost.com, the article is titled: Bhumjaithai 'ready to form interim government', quoting directly, I think it's worth pointing out, if they do form a government, it wouldn't necessarily be an interim one. Now there is talk about certain concessions I guess you could say or certain conditions as a result of, or in connection with, certain aspects of the votes that will be required to form this Coalition have to do with promises to go ahead and dissolve the House and have elections sooner rather than later, as well as issues surrounding the possible redraft of certain aspects of the Thai Constitution, but it would be an ongoing new Parliament or a new Government under the same Parliament. That said, quoting directly: " The Bhumjaithai Party says it is ready with allies to form an interim government with support from the opposition People's Party, the largest Party in the House of Representatives, and dissolve the House in 4 months." Quoting further: "Bhumjaithai quit the Paetongtarn government led by her Phue Thai Party in June amid tension between both parties over landownership issues involving key party figures, the fight for the Interior Minister's portfolio, and differing views on casino and cannabis legalisation." Well yeah, that and the fact of the leaked phone call where she is on a phone call that she has now been removed from office for making what can only be described as inappropriate communications to the President of the Senate over in Cambodia, Hun Sen. So again, I mean they didn't just leave over standard Party issues. Bhumjaithai withdrew because of serious concerns stemming from that phone conversation.

I get into some of this and how this is going to interact with expat land here in Thailand. I will be making content contemporaneously with this wherein I will be discussing how I sort of foresee this interacting with expat land especially as it pertains to visas, immigration policy, tax policy as well as even banking policy here in Thailand. Those who are interested in that, you can email us, [email protected]. I can get you on the email list to get that content. Eventually we are going to be setting up a platform specifically to provide that ongoing paid content, so if you are interested in that, please email us, [email protected]. Also, while I'm on the topic, it's worth pointing out my better half and I set up a restaurant here in downtown Bangkok, Pancake Palace, as the name implies, breakfast anytime as well as American Diner style food: buffalo wings, chilli bowls, cheeseburgers, glass bottle Cokes, we're working on milkshakes, although it's a bit of a work in progress. That said, we are open for business; it is Diner style food in downtown Bangkok, Pancake Palace, come check us out; links are in the description below.

That said, moving over. Let's get into some of the higher weeds if you will, some of the deeper analysis regarding these developments. Going over to the Nation, that's nationthailand.com, the article is titled: Anutin set to lead new Thai Government after Coalition secures 279 MPs support. Quoting further: "Bhumjaithai secures backing from multiple Parties amassing 279 MPs and positioning Anutin Charnvirakul as Prime Minister candidate. Bhumjaithai which holds 69 seats, reached agreements with several parties and political blocs: People's Party (142 seats), Palang Pracharath Party (18 seats), Kla Tham Party (26 seats), United Thai Nation Party led by Suchart Chomklin (18 seats) and Thai Sang Thai Party (2 seats) and a total of four seats from 1-seat parties, including New Democracy Party, all of which have pledged support." Quoting further: "This gives the Bhumjaithai-led Coalition an initial total of 279 supportive votes. By contrast, the 492 seat House of Representatives means Phue Thai's bloc could be reduced to just 213 votes." It is worth pointing out, even during the last few weeks of what I was calling the "Rump Coalition" Government, they well barely able to muster votes even in quorum checks; they were shutting down the session because they were unable to make quorum. As I discussed in a rather deep dive both on the paid news service and I discussed a little bit on the main channel, yeah they were able to secure a majority for the budget to get that through the House and they were able to do that, but it was only by 257 votes, so basically 7 total votes on something that as I discussed at the time, was a massively bipartisan, or non-partisan endeavour; pretty much everybody in Thailand I would say was probably relieved to see that pass. Nobody really was gung-ho about not getting the budget through, so while you could have called that something akin to a legislative success, it wasn't much of one because they have such low support and it is not surprising in light of the underlying facts going on here in the country, most notably Ms. Paetongtarn's phone call to Hun Sen which as we have discussed in many other videos there is tons of inappropriateness associated with that, as noted by the Constitutional Court itself. 

That said, quoting further: "Reports indicate that Ministerial positions were offered as part of these deals. For instance, the Kla Tham Party's Thamanat Prompow, seeks the Ministry of Interior, with Thamanat prepared to assume the role personally. Palang Pracharath proposed Gen. Prawit Wongsuwan as Defence Minister, while Suchart Chomklin of United Thai Nation aims for the Labour portfolio. Bhumjaithai has preliminarily reserved the Ministry of Transport for Party Secretary Chaichanok Chidchob." Quoting further: "The rapid maneuvering signals a decisive effort by Bhumjaithai to form the next government and position Anutin Charnvirakul at its helm." Also worth pointing out for those who are sort of playing at home and watching this, it's also worth pointing out that look it really was Bhumjaithai and Anutin again, I would argue who really whipped up the Coalition that we saw from 2023 up until this past Friday. By any stretch of the imagination, when we got done with the initial rounds of voting associated with a possible government back in August of ‘23 and we sort of saw it stall out, it was Anutin’s maneuvering and discussions with Phue Thai that were able to put together that coalition Government, so this isn't unprecedented. It looks like yet again there is going to be a similar coalition being constructed seemingly in a similar manner.

That said, quoting further and let's actually hear from the man himself, I think it's worth noting. From world.thaipbs.or.th, that is Thai PBS World Publication but it is world.thaipbs.or.th, the article is titled: Bhumjaithai's Anutin announces coalition, eyes premiership. Quoting directly: "Bhumjaithai Party leader Anutin Charnvirakul announced that he has support needed to form a new coalition Government and that he is ready to be the next Prime Minister of Thailand. Quote: "As Bhumjaithai's leader and Prime Ministerial candidate, I have been ready since 2019," Anutin said." Quoting further: "Speaking at a press conference, at around 9:25pm last night," -and I think by last night they mean Saturday night, actually Friday night - quoting further: "he claimed that, after learning of the Court's decision, his group decided to come together, agreeing that Thailand must be not be allowed to stagnate." Quoting further: "Previous Governments could not resolve the problems, but we are confident that we can. We care about the country and want to restore peace and stability," he said."

Yeah, and look my confessions regarding my own biases, and I have done this in other videos as well, I have had kind of an affinity for Anutin for a while now, for a variety of different reasons. Now I know there are those who have their issues with him, and we are going to go over here to one final citation getting into that but in in that article, it's by Mr. Barry Kenyon, hats off to you sir, he's a friendly acquaintance of mine, they go into maybe foreigners' concerns about an Anutin Government. Yeah, I kind of understand where foreigners come from on some of that, especially regarding remarks made in the past. That said, I think they were rather flippantly made; I don't think he was quite serious about all of that. That said, that's neither here nor there and he did apologize for it too at the time. 

That said, I do have a level of affinity for him mostly because as we have discussed, I felt like Cannabis was a good idea from a policy standpoint. Also, and this is something people forget about, it was Anutin as Public Health Minister that flipped on the vaccine mandate for those wanting to come into Thailand. We have all kind of, myself included although I don't let myself do it, we all kind of want to forget the COVID era and everything that happened associated with that but all of us went through our own sort of internal trials and tribulations I would argue with regard to how we viewed that whole thing, and I think it's important to point out that at a certain point when it became clear that there was more hysteria driving the notion that “oh we have to have a vaccine mandate” than anything science related, Anutin flipped on that and he set the policy that "no you didn't necessarily have to have a vaccine to get into Thailand, because at that point there were enough vaccines so that those who felt they needed it, could go ahead and get it. And I think that that is important to point out. He was reasonable under those circumstances and for that reason among others, I personally have had a positive response to him. So I just want my biases to be clear when you are watching these videos in the future. Now that is not to say I am not going to be critical if I see issues, but as I have said in other videos, I do think overall he has a lot more positives than negatives and anybody that can reasonably make a change in their decisions or make a policy change based on the prevailing facts at the time they are presented to them, that is somebody I am going to have a lot of respect for in a policy making position. That is basically where I come from all this stuff. But that said, again quoting further or quoting I should say from Pattaya Mail, pattayamail.com, under the article titled: Foreigners wonder what's in store if Anutin becomes the next premier. Quoting directly: "Anutin's main hobby is aircraft, and he is known for delivering human organs for transplant in his private plane. He can be difficult to predict as he has attacked military interventions but campaigned in Parliament against a Bill designed to prevent future coups." Well, that is kind of an oversimplification of that issue. That said, quoting further: "He told Time magazine in 2023, quote: "If the people feel I can deliver what they need, they will choose me to work for them. "Nothing is ever 100% in Thai politics, but he is about to have his moment.

Yeah, and it looks like that is what is shaping up right now well is we are looking at a possible premiership of Mr. Anutin. So I have got to be honest with you, based on what we have seen the last few months, especially with regard to all this weird banking policy, which seems to be stemming from OECD and outside undue influence from places like the World Economic Forum under this past government, and also in my opinion the abrupt semi reversal with Cannabis policy which I am hoping we will see a more reasoned sort of more well thought out set of policies associated with that moving forward, I think that everything augers pretty well for Thailand overall looking at the possibility of an Anutin led Government, here in the Kingdom of Thailand.