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As the title of this video suggests, we are asking the question, "Anutin for four more years?" What are we talking about here? Well let's do some background real quick. For those who are unfamiliar, we have recently had a reshuffle in the Thai Parliament where we have seen Mr. Anutin Charnvirakul come to the foreground as the new Prime Minister of Thailand. The Cabinet has now been sworn and with that, a timer if you will has been engaged, a mechanism has been engaged through a Memorandum of Agreement between Mr. Anutin and his party Bhumjaithai, and the People's Party here in Thailand who voted in favour of his Premiership but decided not to go into the Cabinet. Some outsiders and frankly I am really tired of outsiders labeling things in Thailand, but whatever, some outsiders, foreigners, whatever you want to call it if you will, have labeled this a minority government here in Thailand. I don't think that's actually fair. It's not a minority government insofar as 311 people or 311 MPs, Members of Parliament here in Thailand, voted for Anutin. Now some of them chose, although there seemed to have been an offer open, or an offer presumed, that some chose not to join the Cabinet, but does that make it a minority Government? To my mind, not really, not in how I see it. But okay, everybody can get into semantic arguments over labeling, but that being said, that is where we are at now. Now as part and parcel of the agreement, there was this agreement that was made that there is now a timer from the moment the Government's policy was put up to 4 months down the road. So there is 4 months. The clock has started from that point to dissolve the House and call for new elections. So presumably some time I think we are looking at late December at the earliest, late January probably at the latest, we are going to see the House here dissolve and we are going to go into new elections. But until then, we have got this Anutin Government, which thus far and albeit it is early days, is looking like it is doing overall pretty well, at least from where I sit. 

That said the question posed is what happens after elections? And quoting directly from Bangkok Post, bangkokpost.com, the article is titled: Newin backs PM for full term. Quoting directly, and I urge those if you are interested, look one function when I talk and I want to be clear, I view myself as providing superficial at best, analysis on Thai politics, okay. I'm not a major expert on this. I do follow it as much as I would probably avidly follow politics in whatever American state I might be living in or something like this, so I follow local politics to that level. Now I am kind of a political nerd; I've got a background in Political Science and lawyers tend to kind of have that kind of mind, or that bent in their mind, but I don't consider myself some deep expert. 

Now that said, I do get into more deep dive videos in our long-form news service. If you're interested in that, you can email us [email protected]. While I'm also quickly talking my book - I won't take very long - Pancake Palace, breakfast anytime, a diner my wife and I set up here in downtown Bangkok. Again breakfast anytime and American Diner style food; links are in the description below if you want to come visit us there. There are both Google address link, Google maps link as well as Grab, if you want to come see if by Grab. So yeah, we would love to see you at Pancake Palace. 

Now that said, I still, when I make these videos that I put on the channel, this is not the deeper dive, and I am not saying I am the end-all-be-all in thoughts on Thai politics. Thai politics, the Thai Political system, is, volatile is the wrong word, but it moves very quickly, and it can really change very fast. And I think a lot of observers were, frankly, a lot of from who I could see a lot of long timers who have been observing Thai politics for quite a while, friends I had talked to and things, were kind of surprised about the things that have happened in the last six weeks, the sort of the abrupt change over in this Government. So again, take everything you hear sort of for what it's worth; it is just sort of the opinion of the person giving it. That said, another function of this channel I have always felt that I was somewhat providing albeit in kind of an implicit way, is as a sort of a news aggregator in the sense that I like to cite articles that I am hoping frankly people will then themselves go and read. This is a perfect example of one of these. I have said it before, I'll say it again, notwithstanding my own thoughts on maybe at times they may have their own biases, the Bangkok Post does a pretty good job of keeping a pretty close eye on Thai politics and distilling down a lot of what is going on quite well to the English language readership out there, to the English language audience if you will.

So I strongly urge those for a variety different reasons, who are watching this video, to go check out that article in the Bangkok Post, again the article is titled: Newin backs PM for full term. I am going to quote an excerpt here but the analysis and just the data points in that article are useful to folks if you are interested in keeping just something of a finger on the pulse of politics here in Thailand. That said, quoting directly: "After receiving his own blessing, Mr. Newin" - and when they say "blessing" there was a whole ritual and things that happened; again I urge you to check out the article - "after receiving his own blessing, Mr. Newin invited Mr. Anutin forward. As the Ritual Master tied the thread around the Prime Minister's wrist, Mr. Newin offered personal blessing for him to serve a full four-year term -- prompting both men to laugh and embrace. As the ceremony unfolded, Mr. Newin was seen holding Mr. Anutin's hand steady throughout the ritual, ensuring the thread was tied properly." Quoting further: "While the blessing was being performed, Mr. Newin was heard saying: "Tie it so he becomes Prime Minister for four years, wins the election, and brings peace and stability to the country." In response, Mr. Anutin, who also serves as Interior Minister, downplayed speculation about his political future. Quote: "Let's just focus on getting through these four months first." And first of all I have got to be honest with you, when I read that line one of the things I'd like about Anutin, and I have been in disagreement with him - look at my record, I have disagreed with him in the past - but one of the things I like about him is he is a pragmatist. Okay, everybody is talking about long-term big plans for the future and everything and here is the guy in the chair sitting there going, "hey let's worry about the next four months, and then we can worry about the next four years." I like that attitude; we need more of that attitude here in Thailand. Frankly a lot of big ideas and a lot of things of, "oh we're going to change this, and we are going to have this for the future, and this is how it's going to be into the new whatever," that hasn't worked real well. And frankly in the last two years I have seen a lot of programs proposed here in Thailand with that kind of mindset behind it in terms of impetus and momentum, that in my opinion probably aren't good, probably weren't good for the country. I made my opinions and views felt on that in the moment, but I like this pragmatic attitude, "hey we have got four months, so let's work on that; let's get to the election". I think there's probably parts of the House that need to get in order at least from the standpoint of the apparatus behind the administration of elections. As I discussed in prior videos, the former acting Prime Minister who was also a member of the Communist Party of Thailand, and was also Interior Minister at the time, did a bunch of changes in terms of personnel within the Interior Ministry which I don't know exactly what the implications of that would have or could have been, but when you couple that with the notion that the Interior Ministry is responsible for administering elections, and at the same time that same acting Prime Minister tried to dissolve the House without legal authority by the way, he was effectively sort of forestalled from completing the dissolution or from even the issue of a dissolution coming to the foreground because he just didn't have the authority to do it. When you look at all of that in its totality, it leads me to believe at least some scrutiny needs to be placed on the Interior Ministry and the personnel therein, with regard to putting on the next election. So from that point of view I again look at Mr. Anutin's comment as heartening as, hey let's worry about the next four months; let's just do our job the best we can so we can put on the best elections we can, not kind of, the best elections we can. Let's just get our house in order and let's just move through the next election cycle and what will be, will be. I think Bhumjaithai has cause to be optimistic, but I also like the pragmatic approach of Mr. Anutin of "hey let's worry about the next 4 months". That resonated with me a lot. That said, quoting further: "When asked about the likelihood of securing a second full term Mr. Anutin replied, quote: "I am doing my very best in the role I have been entrusted with during these four months. What happens after that will depend entirely on the outcome of the next election." Well put. I love it; this is great. He's not a caretaker PM. He has his 311 votes; he has a mandate. It's for four months per the MoA, per the Memorandum of Agreement between People's Party and Bhumjaithai Party, but I think this is the right attitude to have. Hey, let's do the best we can. I would like to see high season be as good as we can get going into the New Year. We are starting to enter high season; I am starting to see tourists kind of tick up. It would be good to see a substantial rise if you will in tourism. It would also be good to have some stability the next few months and look, I don't think there would be anything wrong with another four years of "peace and stability to the country". That would be great, but we are not there yet. Let's worry about that when we get to the election cycle.

For now, four more months of just moving forward, administration of the country in a peaceful manner, and then hopefully we will see elections sometime probably in the first quarter of next year, and then thereafter we will see a new Government and hopefully all will be right with the world. That said, I will be here as usual keeping you updated on the situation as it evolves.