Transcript of the above video: 

As the title of this video suggests, we are talking about Coups, Casinos and “Amnesty” for What? What are we talking about here? Well to provide a little bit of context for regular viewers of this channel and for those who go over to our paid news service, and by the way, our paid news service if you are interested in that, you can email us at [email protected], that is [email protected] for the terms of service regarding that. I get into much more detail in those videos, and it is minimum 30-minute videos where I am talking somewhat stream of consciousness, but about what is going on especially recently into doing deep dives into like the Thai political maneuvering. That said, back to the main thrust of this video and what we have been doing the last couple of days. I was actually down at the recent protest which in my opinion wasn't so much of a protest, it was just kind of a rally; it was very peaceful, in fact placidly so. So however people want to spin this, if they want to spin it, I was there albeit okay I wasn't there the whole time, only 3 hours, but it wasn't that over-the-top and believe me, I was here in 2010, I have seen these things be un-peaceful, let me put it that way.

That said, it looks to me like there is a lot of attempt to spin going on, just generally out there, regarding the possibility of a coup. And for anybody that knows the history of Thailand, this is not exactly an uncommon thing here. What I would argue, and I have talked about this maybe not so much on this channel, but I have talked about with friends and things, look different countries have different mechanisms to maintain their own balance of power. I am not "defending" coups, but it just works differently here in Thailand. So you have got to understand that to begin with. I know that the word itself is sort of loaded specially in a Western context. That said, I don't think one is going to happen right now. I've been around them before, it felt, I liken it - I'm from Kansas I liken the series of events that leads up to a coup to something akin to the weather patterns that lead up to a tornado. Things just feel a certain way when a tornado is coming. It's similar with that kind of thing only maybe in a more sociopolitical context, and it doesn't feel like that to me, and it definitely didn't feel like that at the rally. Now I will admit, my Thai is not natively fluent, but I could understand what was being said on the stage. And as I discussed in my prior videos on the topic, the primary issue is people much like myself, and let's be clear, people across a broad spectrum of Thai politics, not just any one partisan faction, and people that I never thought would get together on a stage to rally at the same time over something, they just care about Thailand and they are worried about Thailand and frankly I am too. And mostly what they were calling for was the resignation of the current Prime Minister because primarily for what she did and her call to Mr. Hun Sen which we have talked about at length in prior videos. I also have my concerns that she doesn't seem to be concerned at all with the sovereignty of Thailand as evidenced by the fact that she keeps inviting these World Economic Forum minions around here to discuss, I don't know, how we can "all own nothing and be happy" or whatever it is they discuss. But this was not a call for any kind of a coup, and it really wasn't even all that, how do you put it, I didn't get the feeling of any fervour for any disquiet in the country. I think everybody, in fact folks that I talked to that were there, said it is really nice not to have to walk around on eggshells because of partisan issues. Everybody was just there to show their support for Thailand, that was the feel that I got. Now okay, take that with a grain of salt if you will, that was my personal perception but that was what I saw. 

That said, I thought of making this video after reading a recent article in the Bangkok Post, bangkokpost.com, the article is titled: Calls for a new PM grow. That title is well put. That again is the main thrust of what people are upset about. This call to Hun Sen is not something that can just be spun and swept under the rug. It's a big deal. If it was intentionally done, if she knew what she was doing I should say, and there may be some question on that, but if she knew what she was doing, I don't know what the word is for it, but it's not good okay. It clearly undermines the sovereignty of Thailand. I mean to talk about your own Field Commander as an “opponent” alone to a foreign leader, is something that I don't understand how that could be. Meanwhile if she didn't know that this was inappropriate that warrants maybe, not maybe, I've said it before, stepping aside as well. If you don't know what you are doing, and you are 38 years old and you really don't have the breadth of knowledge or the depth of understanding to do this job, it's probably time to move aside and let somebody else who can do it, do it, which brings me to this whole issue of what I'm perceiving to be maybe over hyperbole about Coups coming from at least the Bangkok Post, and I don't think it necessarily comes from a place of nefariousness or malevolence, I think make it more come from a place of sensationalism. They are running a newspaper, they need to sell clicks, they need to get eyeballs. That word is politically charged, that's going to get attention, I get it. That said, quoting directly: "Anti-government demonstrators have vowed to ramp up their calls demanding the resignation of Prime Minister Paetongtarn Shinawatra, while denying accusations from the Phue Thai Party and the People's Party that they are calling for a military coup." Again, people weren't doing that. I was there. That wasn't what they were saying. They were saying, "hey we're a sovereign country, we don't want to be told what to do by Hun Sen." That was the main thrust of what I heard, so take it for what you will, but a person that was on the scene for a number of hours that day, I didn't hear that to that extent. You can read that article for yourself, I urge you to do so. You can take comments that people made off hand probably when asked a series of questions and take that kind of out of context. There's no point in doing that, that really wasn't the thrust of that rally. 

That said, this whole issue, it's been turned into the dialectic which leads me again to believe there's foreign influence involved because sort of by their fruits you shall know them kind of thing. The dialectical approach and trying to pit this as an “either or” scenario, is the technique of the World Economic Forum types, let's put it that way. The point I'm trying to make there is this isn't a matter of “she resigns, or we get a coup”. There's a million other ways that this could play out okay. As I've discussed in other videos, the Constitutional Court could find her unfit or suspend her pending an adjudication of her prior conduct. The National Anti-Corruption Commission is now investigating her; something could come of that where she ends up not being PM. She could step aside herself. The Coalition such as it is, and I am not convinced they have the votes in actual Parliament, could turn out to be a non-starter and the whole thing could collapse politically sort of “naturally politically” within Parliament itself. Any of those things could occur and on top of it, if she stepped down and the Constitutional Court suspended her or if she didn't have a majority voting with her in Parliament and the Coalition collapsed, they can reform, and it can come from a member of Phue Thai that we see as PM after her. It's not a matter that Phue Thai would just be out. There are five people currently on the list under this Constitution that could be called forward to be PM under these circumstances. One of them is from Phue Thai, which brings me to another article from the Bangkok Post, bangkokpost.com and hats off to the Bangkok Post. You are really staying up with this. Quoting directly from the article titled: Government girds for battle. Quote: "Should the government prove unable to proceed, a house dissolution may be the only viable exit." Well not necessarily. She could just step aside and then within the Coalition they could reform. Quoting further: "A decisive factor could be adverse rulings from independent institutions." Yeah, like the Constitutional Court or the National Anti-corruption Commission. Quoting further: Quote: "In the worst-case scenario, if the Prime Minister is removed from Office and Coalition partners decide to continue governing, the only acceptable successor from within Phue Thai would be Chaikasem Nitisiri," the source said. Mr. Chaikasem, is the third and final Prime Ministerial candidate of Phue Thai." Well there is a replacement; it's not like, to quote or paraphrase Ghostbusters, "dogs and cats living together, mass hysteria", if she steps aside. There is a replacement there. There is an understudy in the wings. Now it has been bandied about that this person may be too old or something. Well frankly, under the circumstances, where we have had somebody who clearly in my opinion is maybe too young and inexperienced to be doing the job in the first place, I'd take the old timer. That would be me; that would be my default position regarding that. So I just think that this whole dialectic that “it is a coup, or it is her”, that's nonsensical. Meanwhile, there are multiple other options that can play out, one of which of the most likely one I think is just a replacement from the same party that's the main Core Coalition Party. I supported this one; you can look at my record. I was on record saying I wanted this coalition to hold together. I believe in it. To some degree I still do. Bhumjaithai pulling out causes me to doubt a little bit, but if they could reform with somebody new, it is mostly her I am concerned about. She either did this intentionally and that is really bad, or she didn't know what she was doing, and it results in a bad outcome, so we really need to look at a different person for that job, and we have an understudy from the same party available to do that. So to frame this as, "it's either this or a coup", that is really disingenuous and I don't like it, obviously. 

That said, on top of this, now there is talk of, I have discussed this in other videos, they are now pushing, well I've discussed the Casino Bill which I have concerns with because I think possibly this may be completely sold out to foreign interests as I've discussed in other videos, they are now pushing that back, but now they are coming up with some kind of Amnesty. And my question is, Amnesty for what? And I watch this very closely the narrative. This whole “Amnesty” notion has only come up in the last couple of days, and let me dive into that, again Bangkok Post, hats off to you, bangkokpost.com, the article is titled: Debate on Casino Complex Bill delayed for one month. Quoting directly: "Debate on the proposed Casino-entertainment Complex Bill -- initially slated as the first item in the incoming House session on July 3 -- will be postponed by about 1 month for further review, a move not linked to a political rift, says the Phue Thai Party." Well that's one of those, "I don't believe anything from the government unless they categorically deny it" so I have to ask, is there not a rift. I brought up the fact that look they push really hard to take over the Interior Ministry and jeopardize their own Coalition in the process and I have been wondering why. And a friend of mine just mentioned off hand at one point they said, "well it looks to me like they may be doing that because they want to be able to sign off on foreigners owning these casinos", which it is my understanding presently the Bill would allow for foreigners to own the Casino Enterprise out right, it stands to reason that there may be some benefit, or they may think there's some benefit to coming from selling the land off as well. I've done the video on that already, and if you want to check that out, part of the title was: Putative Interior Minister, I can't remember the rest of title, go to the search function in our channel and you can find it. But basically yeah, that was my big concern. You are already selling the enterprise off and allowing the enterprise to be fully foreign owned, are you trying to sell the land too? That's my concern and I'm concerned about that because I don't think foreign interests should be coming in, bringing in a gambling enterprise and then sucking all the wealth out and then owning the land on top of it. 

That said, they are pushing that back which at first glance you would say well that may be killing it off. No, it makes me more concerned because when it is pushed quietly to the side, that is where all kinds of machinations can come up that would allow it to sort of be slipped through. And again, the notion that a foreign gambling operation would be owned out right by foreigners, including the land, I think should be concerning to every Thai. But then on top of it, it looks like to fill that vacuum if you will, they are coming up with this notion of Amnesty and then my question is Amnesty for what? Quoting further: "As a result of the delay, four political Amnesty Bills, including those proposed by Coalition Parties, will now go up for debate on July 9 with Phue Thai hoping the final version of the Bill will foster national reconciliation." Well I'm here to tell you, there is one clear way to foster national reconciliation. Have the Prime Minister step aside because people across the political spectrum here, not from any one partisan faction, are concerned about her ability to lead if for no other reason than the phone call that she herself has corroborated having occurred between her and Hun Sen where she is calling him "uncle" and telling him she will get him whatever she wants. She says, "hey let's open the border at the same time", he disagrees, she calls our own Field Commander that's in the field up along the border an "opponent". These are concerning things and to just sweep this under the rug and try to spin that is concerning to me. And meanwhile is this Amnesty Bill, are they trying to push this through to get her amnesty from that when we haven't even investigated it yet? Does nobody remember how the last coup occurred? One of the factors was people were concerned, or certain factions if you will were concerned about an Amnesty Bill that would have acted as what it was my understanding at the time going back into 2014, that it would act as a kind of carte blanche for possible bad political actors if you will. And I don't know the ins and outs of this particular Amnesty Bill, but every time now I hear the term Amnesty Bill, it concerns me. One, when do us little people ever get an Amnesty Bill, from anything? Why is it always these politicians always trying to come up with their own Amnesty Bills? Amnesty from what? and for who? I mean it looks to me like certain political actors have their back up against the wall and they are grasping at the straws because they are concerned. The one thing that I haven't seen a lot of is accountability lately, and frankly it would be nice to see some and I don't really understand why the priority then went from, "hey let's get a casino that foreigners could possibly own and maybe we will even give them the land" to "oh let's do an Amnesty Bill to fill that vacuum”. Why don't you do stuff that would help the people here? That's your point; that's your raison d'être for being in Parliament. Not to save your own hides and not to enrich yourselves, but to take care of us, your constituents, the people that put you there. I do see some folks in there that seem to be genuinely trying to do that, and I for one am very much in favour of national reconciliation, but the notion that the PM stepping down would somehow not foster that is nonsensical when someone from her own party is standing right there to replace her.