Transcript of the above video: 

As the title of this video suggests, we're discussing cashless yet again. Now I think it's interesting that the term Digital Wallet or Digital Wallet Tokens. I was calling them Digital Wallet Tilapia because due to Gresham's law I think those Digital Wallet Tokens would have driven out all the good money from Thailand's economy much the same way that tilapia have driven out a lot of the indigenous fish here in Thailand due to the fact that they have been introduced inadvertently into the ecosystem. But that said, I have noticed the terminology "digital wallet, digital money digital anything isn't being spoken about, at least I have noticed a diminishing usage in the press of that terminology because I think it has gained a negative connotation. Because I think a lot of people have sort of done a little bit of research into this and they have said wait, wait, wait. Digital tokens? How is that money? And we have discussed that stuff at length. But now I find it interesting that the terminology has shifted a little bit; now we are hearing "cashless" a lot more. 

So that said, I thought of making this video after reading a recent article from Bangkok Post, bangkokpost.com, the article is titled: Nation leads march towards cashless society. Quoting directly: "Thailand is expected to transition to a cashless society faster than its regional peers." So okay. First off, let's look at that real quick. Let's look at the headline as a bold assertion. Nation leads march towards cashless society. So from that headline you would be like wow Thailand is just on the march; they are going for cashless; this is happening. The momentum is behind it, the outcome is nearly inevitable, this is where we're at. Well not so much. Quoting directly: "Thailand is expected to transition to a cashless society faster than its regional peers, driven by the country's rapid digital adoption and transformation," well, you'll see my point here in a minute - "according to a Visa survey." So this is Visa Card, okay? That's their survey all right. Visa Card's own survey is being used as the basis for the assertions being made in this article. Quoting further: "Visa, a leading global digital payment service provider, recently conducted the Consumer Payment Attitude Study and found that Thailand could become a cashless society by 2028.." Well that all sounds right. Okay. They've done the study. We could be a cashless society by 2028. But, wait till you see what they base this on. "..ahead of the ASEAN region overall, which is expected to reach this milestone post-2028." Now here is the key point. Quoting further: "The survey revealed 22% of Thai consumers believe a cashless society will emerge between 2026 and 2028, compared to 16% of consumers across ASEAN." Let's be clear there. Not even a quarter of Thais surveyed – and God knows how many were surveyed in this survey, which by the way is Visa Card's own survey - only 22% said anything remotely like "yeah we'll probably be cashless one day". So 22% of respondents say something and that means it's inevitable, it's going to be happening! Quoting further: "Thailand ranks third in the region for carrying less cash with only 47% of the content of each Thai respondent's wallet being cash." of each Thai respondent! I would love to know the sample size, and the sample pool of these people. Because anybody that's ever been to Thailand knows if you talk to somebody in like Bangkok or Pattaya, or even some of the smaller urban centres like Chiang Mai, Hua Hin, Phuket - which I don't even view Phuket as exactly urban in the way that one thinks of is urban, it's like the whole island is just kind of an island thing going on but whatever, I mean it's urbanized and it's very tourism centric as are all the other places I mentioned,  anybody that has ever been to any of these places, especially Bangkok knows, it's wildly different than the Thai hinterland. I mean out in E-san, how many people are using cashless just all the time for every transaction? I expect it is pretty minimal. Up in the sort of Northern rural areas I highly doubt everybody is just running around using cashless all the time. So again I would love to know the sample size and where they got the people for this survey who are saying these things because it does not sound to me as if any of this is indicative of sort of a pan-Thailand sentiment here. That being said, quoting further, quoting again I should say: "Thailand ranks third in the region for carrying less cash with only 47% of the content of each Thai respondent's wallet being cash." Again, "the respondents"! I'd love to know who they are. "..trailing Vietnam (56%) and Malaysia (49%)."

Here is the other thing that's interesting. A lot of talk has been made about the lack of liquidity. One of my favourite economists in Bangkok Post has talked a lot about this, that liquidity has gone down substantially. Well it makes sense. I mean the Fed started pumping out money, I mean just literally pumping out money during the COVID crisis, so-called crisis, and basically that resulted in a lot of liquidity going around the world. There was just liquidity; you could feel it. I mean we noticed it here for at least a year, especially among the Americans but among the entire expat population and when you understand how inflation gets exported too, the sentiment was money wasn't the issue; getting your hands on cash wasn't a particular issue. I have noticed in the aftermath of that, liquidity has been drying up and it seems to me that the folks who are pushing this agenda are using that current lack of liquidity as some kind of basis for which to say that this “cashless” endeavour is a better way to go. When you just understand sort of banking cycles or have any basic understanding - I don't claim to be any kind of an expert - but when you have even a basic understanding of banking cycles, you just know that when a bunch of liquidity got pumped out, then it dries back up. It is just sort of the natural cadence of that cycle. Again to use that sort of previously known cyclic situation as sort of a justification for completely changing over to digital and by the way once we do that, we are in a totalitarian, completely surveilled financialized system. I find that to be a disingenuous argument. That being said, quoting further: "However, he admitted PromptPay's success has disrupted Visa's business in the Thai market.." could that be why you made this survey so you can say we all need to go on cashless and use your system? Quoting further: "..particularly in debit card services. The cancellation of Visa debit cards has risen post-pandemic largely due to the growing impact of PromptPay, he said." 

Yeah, we have discussed PromptPay in the past. People have kind of asked me about this. I don't love it insofar as it gets people used to the idea of not using cash but I'm not in favour of banning anything. If people want to use it, use it. But the underlying system should be based on a cash based economy: banknotes, being able to get banknotes and then buy things using banknotes. I don't want to be China. I was watching a thing the other day where there was some natural disaster somewhere in China and all these people were like crowding around the one electric outlet where they could charge their phones because in China you can't eat, if you don't have your phone, because they have a social credit score system - there is no money up there anymore - it's all just social credit basically. And if you have bad social credit they can take things away from you; if you have no social credit i.e. like your phone isn't charged, you can't go to somebody else who has got a phone and have an interaction with them and get yourself some food. We don't need that in Thailand; it's not good for anybody. I don't think it's good particularly for the Chinese people but that's their problem. If they want to live under that in China, that's their business, that's fine, I have no problem with that. Just don't bring it here. Quoting further: "Due to the country's high level of household debt and limited access to credit cards for some retail borrowers.." - okay so, okay due to the problems with debt and things, says the company that has imposed the debt, - quoting further: "..debit cards remain a vital digital payment solution in this consumer segment. Mr. Punnamas revealed that Visa Thailand plans to introduce Click-to-Pay, a tokenized.." we have heard that before! "tokenized" "..payment system next year to improve card security and prevent fraud. This innovative solution will eliminate the need for a 16-digit card number." 

You know, the first thing I thought when I read that is like you want to prevent a bunch of fraud, you could get rid of banking. I mean I'm not actually in favour of that. People think I am like some kind of anti-banking person, I'm not. I look at it much the same way - it's like with anything. There's a certain amount of, if you're acting in good faith, and you understand what banking is, it's a very, very useful tool for any society. I mean we've lifted more people up out of poverty using banking facilities than arguably much of anything else, I mean there's a strong argument to be made. The problem is when people start abusing the banking system and perverting it to their own ends, then it can result in a very undesirable outcome for even themselves at the end of the day because as society breaks down, they sort of get sucked into the vortex with everybody else. 

But long story short, the thing and the reason for this video, please Thailand do not be conned into this cashless notion. I mean first of all you can see that they're trying to build a narrative. Again the headline: Nation Leads March Towards Cashless Society. So you think everybody is on board with this thing and then you come to find out, the study revealed, "22% of Thai consumers that they surveyed, which who knows who those people are. That could be a very odd subset of people; not odd necessarily but a specific subset of people for example urban Thais here in Bangkok are very different in their spending habits and the facilities they use to transact than again rural Thais are going to be. So the thing to take away from this video again, please do not be conned by this cashless notion, this cashless society stuff. A cashless society would result in in my opinion, totalitarianism, and that's not going to be good for anyone in Thailand.