Legal Services & Resources
Up to date legal information pertaining to Thai, American, & International Law.
Contact us: +66 2-266 3698
IMF "Surprised" "Thailand's Economy Expanded by 3%"?
Transcript of the above video:
So as the title of this video, well may not suggest, I'll just go ahead and say it, it looks to me like bankers of the world unite and they are uniting to try for whatever reason, to make sort of Thailand look bad in terms of economically. My personal opinion is there may be some nefarious motive of here to like put Thailand into a position like she was in a '97 where the West got to benefit off Thailand's disadvantage at least at that moment, monetarily.
That being said, I thought of making this video after reading a recent article or posting if you will, on the International Monetary Fund's website, imf.org. Quoting directly: "IMF Staff Completes 2025 Article IV Mission to Thailand. Quoting: "Recent economic indicators for the first half of 2025 surprised on the upside as Thailand's economy expanded by 3%."
First of all, everybody has been telling us, especially since that last government came in in '23 - first headed by Srettha, then headed by Paetongtarn - everybody in there kept telling us how terrible Thailand's economy was because they wanted us to go on to the Digital Wallet, and put the country into 20% more debt to GDP ratio in terms of national debt for this Digital Wallet scheme that the money wasn't even real, they could track and trace it, tell you what you could spend it on, turn it on and off. It had an expiration date; it had a physical geographic perimeter in which you could use it. It was terrible. It was totalitarian, Orwellian, monetary terribleness; I don't have any other word for it. It was just awful, but the pretext was "oh everything was terrible in the economy", which I made videos at the time where I said actually it's not that bad. Cannabis legalization at the time caused tourism to be better than expected, caused the commercial real estate sector to be better than expected. Overall GDP went up more than they thought it would; there were various other factors that contributed. But again, continuously we see the Western press and Western financial institutions going on and on and on about how terrible Thailand is economically, always with some plan that's going to result in some con that Thailand has to sign on to and have money extracted to go off to, I don't know, the OECD castles in the air, or wherever those people hang out at, wherever, but it's always in furtherance of some plan that will extract wealth from Thailand but always on the pre-text that Thailand has some sort of economic problem. Then they will come along when they have to give the real numbers and be "surprised, that it was as high as it was. We've gone on and on for damn near the last year hearing about how "oh it's only 2% growth in Thailand." Now it turns out it's 3, which by any metric, which by the way - and the other thing is, is Thailand still considered in this same category as "developing nations", where 3% is considered kind of bad because you want to be doing higher amounts because you are developing? Yeah, but Thailand isn't a developing nation. I mean no offense to any other country but there are certain places in Southeast Asia where if you parked a laundromat in a given town, you would see GDP go up by 5% just from adding that little thing into the overall economy, because there's nowhere to go but up for these jurisdictions.
Thailand isn't that place. Thailand is a very sophisticated economy. I thought 2% was okay, based on demographics and everything, the way they were working out, but now it turns out no it's 3 actually. Reminds me also when they were saying or implying in the Bangkok Post based on Fitch or whatever, talking about how "oh there may be problems with Thailand banking system", and then you read at the end of the article, it was well actually this D-SIB, the Domestically Systemically Important banks are actually perfectly sound; we've stressed them multiple times. They are actually in better shape I would argue than most Western institutions I would argue because Thailand's been inoculated against all of this from '97 and has maintained good practices since that time. But here we continue going with this feedback loop from the West that Thailand is economically moribund and of course the solution is more debt and more wealth extraction by them.
That said, quoting further: "However, growth is projected to slow to 2.1 and 1.6 in 2025 and 2026". Well first of all, you have just got done telling us how bad it was and then you were surprised to the upside, but now you expect us to believe, "but hey, hey. Don't believe your lying eyes. The economy did good up to '25, now it's all going to fall off a cliff. Uh huh!! Quoting further: "Amid increasing economic. Inflation is low and is expected to remain subdued, returning to the authorities' target range (1 to 3 percent) only by 2027. The outlook is uncertain with risks tilted to the downside."
Well, yeah, the outlook is always uncertain, one. Two, I've said this before and I'll say it again, there was a recent article in Pattaya Mail talking about the strong Baht and how gals, there were lines of gals going to exchange rate booths down on Pattaya Beach and they are not quite getting the Thai Baht for their buck if you will that they would get in the past, and the analysis was that the strong Thai Baht was not per se all that great for that particular sector of the economy. Fair point. I hear people, but they were talking about that in light of 32-1 on the exchange rate in terms of dollar exchange rate. Folks that have been around here a while will remember, especially going back to 2011, it's been worse, considerably worse. I remember 28 and change. You couldn't get foreigners to buy anything out here it seemed like at 28 and change. I was primarily doing US Immigration back then and I charge in Baht; the firm charges in Baht, we always have. At 28 and change to 1, I wasn't able to get a lot of folks to sign up for a Fiancé(e) Visa during that month where we had to deal with that.
The point I'm trying to make is for the folks that are in an aspect of the tourism sector or let me just say the exchange rate pertains to them economically very practically, and very directly, I hear you 32 to one isn't 38 to 1; it isn't 36 to 1, but it's not 28 to 1 either. So, the Thai Baht has been stronger. I am kind of am of the opinion let's look at the bright side of things and I think overall Thai Baht strength is a good thing, especially going into the economic situation that we're going into. I think actually based on some things Trump has done, and some recent moves with regard to Thailand and China and some other things like that, I actually think we may be geared up for some pretty smooth waters in terms of trade and we may be able to put this behind us.
But that being said, at least for the time being I'm not going to be upset and I'm not going to lament a relatively strong Baht or a reasonably strong Baht at the moment. The point of this video is that I am really a little bit concerned increasingly that it seems like foreign especially Western institutions, Western media outlets seem to be quite preoccupied with making Thailand look more economically disadvantaged than she actually factually is. That being said, we will certainly be keeping you updated on this channel as the situation evolves.
