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The Impossibility of Predicting Everything

Transcript of the above video:

In the past few months, especially the past few weeks we have been getting a lot of irate people. It is not so much anybody that is a client of ours, it is just people kind of talking to me on a personal basis or they will start corresponding with us and they are looking for a level of prediction on what the future sort of legal structure, Immigration structure specifically, but even in just general sort of legal matters what things are going to look like. 

I try to make it clear on this channel that we only really like to talk about the sort of immediate or even midterm foreseeable future because it really is impossible to predict with any level of certainty the nuances, and vicissitudes of how these types of things, and a perfect example is Thai Immigration policy. If you were to go from December 31, 2019, if you were to tell me "well what do I think things are going to look like going into 2020?" I was making videos at the time where I was saying “okay, things are looking a lot like 2019”. We were still dealing with the Trump Administration; we still had some roadblocks that were up, obstacles because of that and everything was just kind of coming along hunky dory, well that would have been a terrible prediction. It was a terrible prediction insofar as intervening circumstances proved that the entire thing was upended. I mean in terms of Thai Immigration, essentially for a couple of months, there was no Thai Immigration. US Immigration slowed down to a virtual halt. I mean yeah we were processing cases some, a few, a lucky trickle that were still at the Embassy we were managing to get some stuff through in 2020, sometimes in 2021 but for the most part that was pretty much well shut down. 

My point with this video is people that contact us and want us to be able to predict the future with an absolute certainty, that is just not possible. I try to make this as clear as I can in both private correspondence as well as on this channel that we can't predict everything and I try to make it clear when I say look we are engaging in speculation here or this is just what it looks like. I mean I got burned a lot thinking that so-called "travel bubbles" were going to be a thing. "Travel Bubbles" between Singapore and Thailand or China and Thailand, Japan and Thailand. They kept talking about that and talking about that and that just never happened and it seemed to me, especially in 2020 and then later in '21, rather logical that we would see something like that. It never happened, just didn't. So again it is really not possible to predict every little thing that is going to come up down the road.