Transcript of the above video: 

As the title of this video suggests, we are talking about who our friends are in Southeast Asia. Now the thumbnail may be a little bit confusing to folks if they don't sort of understand the context of all of this, including the notion of "friendship" being fatal and the photo of Henry Kissinger with Mr. Trump, so let me go ahead and explain the context of that. This is a quote, quote: "It may be dangerous to be America's enemy, but to be America's friend is fatal. Henry Kissinger" I'll go ahead and put that on screen.  I don't know if I agree with old Hank on that one insofar as I actually have studied especially the history of the US-Thai relationship and I think it is actually a pretty sound case study of a good diplomatic relationship between two very solid allies. If you look at the nearly 200-year relationships, the over 190-year Treaty relationship between the two countries, it's a case study in a solid mutually beneficial relationship to my mind.

But the reason for this video, it's not so much, first of all look, at the end of the day whatever you want to think of this current Administration, the buck stops with Mr. Trump. That is the reason I sort of made it specific to him because it does. He's been through sort of a trial by fire the last four or five years. His first term, I think, was very educational for him and the workings of inside the beltway politics as well as international politics. I made a video recently where I was commenting on, I thought that his recent handling of the so-called Epstein matter, I think it was a political gaff. Now let me be clear, I don't think he is a terrible person or anything like that, I just think he handled it in a certain way that in the past probably would have worked, but with that particular issue, people just have a different mindset on that particular issue. But as I said in that video, we are going to be dealing with him for another three and a half years. It wasn't fatal to his political capital or anything of that nature, it was just in my mind one, it sort of showed that we are on the tail end, we are in his second term now albeit after 12 years, it will be 12 years total of having him in sort of the Presidential political arena. But the point I was trying to make with that video was yeah, I thought it was mishandled but generally speaking, Mr. Trump is pretty on the ball, and I think he is going to continue to be. The other thing I think is worth pointing out here is Mr. Trump has brought up a lot of good points regarding America's trade relationship vis a vis certain of her allies and certain of her trading partners. I remember reading a White Paper that he put out, his campaign put out in the 2016 campaign regarding VAT that I thought was just spot on. He saw something that I thought nobody else was seeing at the time, which was these countries that utilize VAT, they then push it to the American consumer. The American consumer just sort of eats it. They don't realize they are eating it, but they do, and I have always kind of thought well, if they figured out a way to sort of neutralize VAT, I wouldn't necessarily have a problem with that, and this is as somebody who has got a foot in both the American and the Thai worlds, if that just sort of neutralized between those two trading partners, yeah sure fine. 

Meanwhile though, this talk of 36% tariffs, and we are looking down the barrel of a deadline here in August and there is a lot of consternation as to whether a deal is going to be struck, I find that concerning although I do think ultimately, I think cooler heads are going to prevail on this. But I wanted to make this video not to get into the high weeds of the trade relationship itself - I am not in a position to really know that - there is a non-disclosure agreement over the negotiations to begin with, albeit Mr. Thaksin seems to have stuck his nose yet again in a place where I don't think it belongs and there are probably legal ramifications for him and the Phue Thai Party here in Thailand for that, but I have gotten into that in other videos - I will get into a little bit of that in further analysis that we will get into here. But long story short, I am not talking about the details, the little persnickety stuff having to do with the trade balance itself. I am hoping Mr. Trump, his team, folks in America that are watching this, will see from this is the broader context of the US-Thai relationship and just how important it is especially when comparing it to relationships elsewhere here in the region, here in Southeast Asia. We have a very special relationship with Thailand; I have made videos in the past calling it a “special” relationship analogous to our “special” relationship for example with the UK. We have one here, whether we notice it sometimes or not, it's a fact. The Thais are a true ally to the United States and a strong partner. I have likened it to the relationship between Wyatt Earp and Doc Holliday. There's a great scene in the film Wyatt Earp which is oftentimes kind of underrated compared to the movie Tombstone, but where Kevin Costner's Wyatt Earp is talking to Dennis Quaid's Doc Holliday, and Doc Holliday says to Wyatt Earp, he says, "it may not always be easy to be my friend, but I'll be there when you need me" and that is how I view the relationship between the Thais and the United States. At various times it's not always been easy to be the United States' friend and ally here in this region and at various times throughout the US’s history due to the machinations of Thai politics, it has not been the easiest thing for America to be Thailand's friend sometimes, but we have always been there for each other when we have needed each other. That said, the point I am trying to make with this video is not to look at just the details of the trade relationship and the details of these tariffs and these different products and whether or not they are going to have these tariffs and things, it is to see the broader geopolitical implications of what is going on out here.

Really quickly, I get into deeper analysis of this stuff in deep dive videos in my paid news service, Integrity News Service. If people are interested in that, you can email us to get in the email list to get the long form videos; the last one was over an hour. Most of them are always a half hour long. I get into all of this kind of stuff as well as deeper analysis of economics, what's going on with the political situation out here in Thailand, greater Southeast Asia, how it impacts the Expat Community. And for those who are interested in that email us, [email protected] for more details regarding getting on the e-mail list for the paid news service. Also while I'm talking my book here, my better half and I have set up a restaurant here in downtown Bangkok, Pancake Palace. For folks who like American Diner style food, including breakfast anytime, obviously including pancakes, you can come check us out. We've got great breakfast any time, including English breakfast; we have a big English. The other thing to bear in mind is we have also got American Diner style food: hamburgers, cheeseburgers, buffalo wings, chilli, chilli dogs, Polish sausage; we've also got pork chops and grilled cheese sandwiches for those who are interested in that, as well as glass bottled Coke. Those who are interested, come on down to Pancake Palace, the link is in the description below. 

That said, getting into this. I first thought of making this video when I initially saw this from the BBC, bbc.com, Trump announces trade deal with Vietnam. Quoting directly: "President Donald Trump said on Wednesday that the US will charge 20% tariffs on imports from Vietnam under a new trade deal reached during last minute negotiations." Now when this came out, I saw it, I just sort of put it at the back of my mind. I have seen this kind of implicitly touted here in the English language press especially as sort of like, "hey Vietnam's getting on the ball, what's going on here in Thailand?" Recently especially, it really gets annoying that Vietnam is sort of compared to Thailand as like they are really pulling ahead of Thailand or something. Well Vietnam has a lot more development to do. Their GDP numbers are going to be higher because they are coming from - I hesitate to use this in the pejorative because I'm not - but they are coming from a less developed state, and they are developing more. That is going to cause more economic activity to occur. Thailand is an already sophisticated economy. I mean we have already got rail; we have already got light rail throughout the city and things. Vietnam is building that new. That's going to skew the way that they look. But in the context of this, this is being touted as if Vietnam is like sort of the Golden Boy or something of Southeast Asia vis a vis the US that they have made this deal. Well how much of a “partner and ally”; maybe a deal has been struck on trade but as we will get into here, how much of an ally are we talking about when it comes to Vietnam? Again I am not casting aspersions at Vietnam directly. They have their own national interests. They are going to do what they are going to do, but do they have the history with the US that the Thais do? Quoting further from a recent article in the Thai Examiner, thaiexaminer.com, just to put some more nuance on this and to how this is kind of being framed over here in Thailand. Quote: Hardboiled US negotiators exposing Thailand's policy double talk. A trade deal inferior to Vietnam is likely. Again "inferior to Vietnam" and my question is why? As I will get into further, the United States and Thailand have the US-Thai Treaty of Amity; we have had it for hundreds of years, going on 200 years now. The 66th iteration allows national treatment of our businesses here in Thailand notwithstanding the Foreign Business Act. No other nationality is granted that privilege in Thailand. That's something to bear in mind. Thailand has not treated the US in any "inferior manner" with regard to internal trade especially, and if anything, has placed the United States if you will sort of on a pedestal compared to other nations doing business here in Thailand. I think that's worth pointing out. That said, quoting directly: "US negotiators expose Thailand's double talk as trade talks sour; deal likely worse than Vietnam's. Meanwhile, a solar panel scandal reveals fake Thai certifications, fueling fears of Chinese imports undermining Thai industry and credibility." Well one, this whole thing of blocking; the US used to be the country that was in favour of free trade, not putting all of these restrictions and things on and then forcing everybody to have to play some shell game to move their goods around. That said, I understand Mr. Trump's policies vis a vis China. If there are issues, I would imagine we are probably not talking about local Thai industry that is engaging in this chicanery. It's probably third country nationals operating here. So okay, if there are issues regarding enforcement, let's talk to local Thai law enforcement. Let's not make it into an us versus them, Thailand versus America. That's not even, I don't think based on any of the facts on the ground, what is really going on here. That said, quoting further: "Deputy Finance Minister Julapun Amornvivat on Sunday all but shut the door on the idea of Thailand offering 0% tariff access to US imports..." Well again I'm not going to get into the high weeds of all of that, but there are going to be some places where Thailand I think rightly feels they need to protect their local industry. I'm not saying across the board, but in certain places. And by the way, we do that back in America for some stuff too. It's my understanding that that was how things, didn't we do some protectionist measures for the steel industry back in the US just recently, or wasn't it under Mr. Trump's first term? That said, quoting further: "An unmistakable sign that trade talks with Washington have again soured." Well that's speculative. "This sharp contrast comes just a day after Finance Minister Pichai Chunhavajira described the July 17 meeting with US officials as "productive." Behind the scenes, however, key figures like former Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra have already conceded the likely outcome. Thailand's final tariff deal with the US could be significantly worse than the one struck with Vietnam. That would be a major blow to Thailand's export competitiveness -- and a potential setback for its long-term trade strategy." First of all, yet again, Mr. Thaksin injecting himself where he doesn't belong; I have discussed this in other videos. Now he is so-called a “lobbyist” even though this is under a confidentiality agreement between the two countries, and why is this guy involved? He's not in the government, he's not supposed to be in the Government. There are serious questions about the legality of that; the undue influence of him on the Party, on the Government and the Party involved in the Government presently. That being said, he has been touted, I think the current acting Prime Minister - who by the way was once a Communist guerrilla in the jungle, but whatever - the current acting Prime Minister has said, "well we need his expertise regarding trade and things." Why? He screwed up the Free Trade Agreement negotiations going back some 20 years ago; that was botched, it never came to fruition. Why is that guy viewed as some kind of expert on trade negotiations with the US? What's that scene in - I think it was Avengers: Endgame - where Loki is talking to Thanos and he says, "well I have experience on Earth." And he says, "well if you call failure experience," I mean that is kind of what we are looking at here. I mean I really question the wisdom of a person that for one, seems to constantly be making all kinds of mistakes that are not in Thailand's interest with regard to things like the Digital Wallet and affiliations with the World Economic Forum. But on top of that, talking about trading negotiations when the last time that person engaged in trade negotiations, they fell apart and it kind of - I wrote a pretty long analysis of this at the time - it could have had negative ramifications for The Amity Treaty itself. It didn't end up working out that way, but not because of any actions by Mr. Thaksin. So I question why his input is even necessary to begin with. It doesn't look like it's legally proper and meanwhile what great insights are we supposed to get from the guy who couldn't get a Free Trade Agreement in the past? 

That being said, more to the point with this and I think moving forward, quoting directly from a recent article in foreignpolicy.com. The U.S.-Vietnam Trade Deal Makes no Sense. Quoting directly: "Since the United States and Vietnam normalized relations in 1995, their partnership has gone from strength to strength. Across five Presidential Administrations, the two countries steadily deepened economic and commercial cooperation, became important maritime partners, and fostered connections between the American and Vietnamese people." Yeah, I don't think there is any disagreement with that. I don't think there is any doubt that has happened, but this stuff gets talked about is if Thailand just hasn't existed; as if in the aftermath of the Vietnam War, when in a lot of ways Thailand was left twisting in the wind, they stayed the ally of the United States throughout all of that. Quoting further: "Washington spent hundreds of millions of dollars helping Vietnam overcome the legacies of war.." yeah, okay, I mean for the former enemy, which again I think we need to put all of that behind us, but where were the millions and millions of dollars spent for your ally? Quoting further: "..and by 2017, an incredible 84% of Vietnamese citizens viewed the United States favourably. In 2023, U.S. President Joe Biden travelled to Hanoi for a historic elevation of the relationship, now termed a comprehensive strategic partnership." And by the way, all during that time, we never saw much of anybody from the Administration really looking to pay any attention to Thailand. Just saying. Quoting further: "Coming on the heels of this 30-year journey, U.S. President Donald Trump's April 2 decision to impose a stunning 46% tariff on Vietnam appeared to represent a significant reversal of fortunes for the two countries' relationship. Trump's July 2 announcement that Vietnam would eliminate all tariffs on US goods, yet permanently face a 24% tariff itself, as well as a 40% tariff on transshipped goods, raised further questions about the future of US-Vietnam ties. Though Vietnam had clearly not agreed to those terms, it decided to bite the bullet and welcome the supposed deal." Well yeah again a deal being cut over there, and then touted as this great thing, but then over here in Thailand it's touted as the Thais have some kind of a problem. It's odd to me.

So this is the background and now let's get into this. This is from Bangkok Post, bangkokpost.com, article is titled: China, Vietnam set for first joint army drills as US trade war draws neighbours closer. Quoting directly: "China and Vietnam are set to conduct their first joint army training exercise according to the Chinese Defence Ministry." So in the aftermath of this deal, which they are not making a deal with, they are still in “hard boiled” negotiations with their ally Thailand, this is what Vietnam is doing with China. Quoting further: "In a statement posted on its website on Sunday, the Ministry announced that the joint exercise would be held this month in Southern China's Guangxi Zhuang autonomous region, which borders Vietnam. Military ties between the Communist Party-led neighbours.." (worth pointing out) - quoting further: "..have deepened in recent months despite territorial disputes as the close economic partners seek ways to navigate the US tariff war." - The close economic partners seek to navigate the US tariff war - Meanwhile Thailand is sitting here in good faith, trying to negotiate this out with its ally, this deal is struck and then this is what's going on thereafter. Quoting further: "The two sides have long carried out joint naval and land border patrols, but the coming exercise would be the first such exchange between their armies." - The first such exchange - in the aftermath of this great deal. Again, I'm not criticizing the administration insofar as I think that they have intentionally done anything wrong; I'm not criticizing anything insofar as - the trade deal itself, that's really not the issue here. What I'm hoping folks see is the broader context of all of this stuff and what's going on out here. That said, quoting further: "Quote: This is the first joint army drill between China and Vietnam, with the theme of 'joint border patrol training'. - joint border patrol training. Quoting further: "The Chinese Ministry of Defence statement said."

Quoting further: "The exercise would "further deepen practical cooperation between the two militaries", it added." So while that is going on, it looks like we are brow beating the Thais on a trade deal, while we have given a trade deal that we have said, is commented upon as being better than the one we will end up with the Thais, and the Thais have been our longtime ally? Quoting further: "On the economic front, China is Vietnam's largest trading partner and a critical supplier for its manufacturing sector. Chinese President Xi Jinping visited Vietnam in April, days after the escalation of the US tariff war." Wow. Coincidence is God winking at you. Quoting further: "Where he called on the Asian neighbours to cooperate to "fight unilateral bullying." Closer defence cooperation this year - which marks the 75th anniversary of diplomatic ties - has included the Chinese military's first-ever appearance in Vietnam's annual celebration of the fall of Saigon." The Chinese appeared then. Quoting further: "On April 30, People's Liberation Army troops marched in what was the biggest parade to mark 50 years since the end of Vietnam's Civil War. Also in April, Chinese Defence Minister Dong Jun visited Northern Vietnam and met with his Vietnamese counterpart Phan Van Giang, with both sides pledging increased defence cooperation."  Increased defence cooperation. Quoting further: "The PLA Navy's 38th joint patrol with the Vietnamese Navy in the Gulf of Tonkin also concluded in April. According to China's Defence Ministry, the operation involved two missile frigates from each country and covered an area of some 200 nautical miles (370 kilometres). Last July, China's Armed Police Force and Vietnam's Mobile Police Force conducted joint counterterrorism exercises in Guangxi. Meanwhile, the two sides have also stepped-up efforts to assert their overlapping territorial claims in the South China Sea, which Beijing claims almost in its entirety." I urge those who are watching this video go check out that article for more detail, there's more information in there. There is a lot of good, nuanced information in there. Hats off to the Bangkok Post for their coverage of this.

I am really concerned about this. I think that it's one of those, again I am not blaming anyone, I don't think anybody is intentionally doing anything wrong. I don't even think folks are lacking in their comprehension or understanding of trade matters, but I think it is one of those "failing to see the forest for the trees" kind of moments. We are worried about this tariff stuff and all these persnickety little details regarding trade, but we are not seeing the broader implications and what America's relationships here in Southeast Asia and the relative strengths, weaknesses and histories associated with those relationships and that by on one hand seemingly giving a "good deal" to one country, and maybe not having such great terms in another deal for another country could undermine America's long term national interest just by dint of the fact, again this phenomenon of "not seeing the forest for the trees". My hope Is and I do believe this because I do believe we have got a good team in Washington that does actually understand, have a better grasp of things at least than, let me just say the last crew, I'll leave it at that. Again it is hard to understand the subtleties and nuances, the history, the background of all of this stuff, especially when you are in DC and you've got the world you are looking at, and we are over here in this one region, I can understand where some things will fall through the cracks in terms of analysis.

So my hope is with this video, that whatever transpires in the ongoing trade negotiations between the United States and Thailand, folks at least in the US will see that there are broader implications beyond trade itself here in the Southeast Asian region.