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Thai-Cambodian Ceasefire Tenuous?
Transcript of the above video:
I would ask folks to watch this video all the way to the end. I initially made this video on the morning of the 29th July 2025, at a time when it appeared the ceasefire is holding. We are now getting updates even since we made the video, while we were editing it to put it up, and we are going to add at the end further context, so stay to the entire end to get the full background on what's gone on up until midnight basically, and up until the morning of the 29th, to get the background on what has happened. And then also we would urge you to watch till the very end because there have been even further developments just since we have made the video and we were in the middle of editing it to update further.
Quickly while I'm here, I am going to go ahead and do my plugs. I know people are getting sort of angry about that but rather than do it in the middle of the content, so for folks that want some deeper dive analysis on this stuff and how it impacts expat world, geo-politics, this whole border dispute, all of it, I am making long form content and I am putting it out to paid subscribers via Integrity News Service. For information on getting on the mailing list about that - the minimum on those videos, the time is about 30 minutes. The last one I did was about an hour. I expect there will be even more long-form content, email us, [email protected] to get on the mailing list for that. Also while I am at it, my better half and I have set up a restaurant here in downtown Bangkok. Pancake Palace, American Diner style food, breakfast anytime including pancakes. The link is in the description below. We'd love to see you at Pancake Palace.
Now again, getting to the background and then the latest update that we have seen even since we are making this video. As the title of this video suggests, it appears that peace is prevailing, at least for the moment, between Thailand and Cambodia. The two countries have engaged in a ceasefire if you will, or concluded a ceasefire - don't exactly know how to phrase that - I'm going to get into citations and things here. This video is being made on the morning of July 29th, 2025 and this is as up to date as I can get it by, the latest this video will likely be posted is 11.45 am and I've looked over all the main news services, Reuters, AP, Bangkok Post as we'll get into, Thai PBS World. I have looked all over. It appears the ceasefire is currently holding as of midnight - between Monday the 28th and Tuesday the 29th here in Southeast Asia - so it appears that this is holding.
That said, going ahead and getting into this. For background and the reason for the thumbnail where it says, "Ceasefire Holding" there has been all this talk of a cease fire for a number of days and things just kind of kept going. So for background, now to be clear, background, and then we are going to get into the more up-to-date information. I initially thought of making this and I actually got the thumbnail from the Southeast Missourian, that's semissourian.com, which I didn't know that folks in Southeastern Missouri were, or Missoura as we would say back in South Central Kansas where I'm from, I didn't know you all were interested in what's going on out here in Southeast Asia, but hats off to you folks at that publication. So the article is titled: Cambodian and Thai leaders hold ceasefire talks in Malaysia as Border violence enters fifth day. A big concern amongst Thais, myself included, had been all this talk of a ceasefire and the Cambodian side of the border kept talking about ceasefire but the munitions kept coming so it was like, well in order to have a ceasefire, you sort of need to cease firing, and not to be snarky, especially when people are losing their lives and things, but it was something that was of concern. Quoting directly: "Before departing for Kuala Lumpur, Phumtham," - that's acting Prime Minister Phumtham Wechayachai - quoting further: "Told reporters in Bangkok that representatives from China and the U.S. will also attend as observers. He said the key focus would be on an immediate ceasefire, but noted trust could be an issue as Cambodia has not stopped its strikes. Quote: "We have informed that we don't have trust in Cambodia. All they have done reflect that they are not sincere in solving this problem. So they have to show the detail how they will do to prove their sincerity," he said." So I think he was saying, "they need to show in detail how they're going to prove up that they are sincere in their talks of ceasefire." So that's the background going into the talks. Now it appears that we have a ceasefire agreement, so that's good, so I'm not trying to foist any further criticism on the Cambodian side because I don't want to cause any further consternation that could disrupt this ceasefire agreement.
That said, quoting from a recent article from Thai PBS World, that's world.thaipbs.or.th, the article is titled: Thailand and Cambodia agree to 'unconditional' ceasefire starting midnight, and again this was from yesterday July 28th, 2025, Thailand time. Quoting directly: "Thailand and Cambodia have agreed to an unconditional ceasefire today, effective from midnight, and will hold bilateral talks at multiple levels. Quoting further: "Both Cambodia and Thailand reached a common understanding, namely an immediate and unconditional ceasefire with effect from 24.00 local time, July 28, 2025," Anwar said." And that is Anwar Ibrahim; he's the current Chair of ASEAN. Quoting further: "He was speaking after the first meeting between the two neighbouring countries, which have been engaged in cross-border skirmishes since July 24. Anwar described the outcome of the special meeting, between Thai Acting Prime Minister Phumtham Wechayachai and Cambodia's Prime Minister Hun Manet, as a positive development. Both leaders held a frank discussion and showed strong commitment to restoring peace and normality in their countries.." So interesting. Yeah, I talked about this in a prior video that I didn't like the whole idea of third countries interjecting themselves. The currently suspended Prime Minister up here was talking to Emanuel Macron from France; like who cares about that. Apparently, China and the US were there as observers, but the substance of the discussion occurred between the acting Prime Minister of Thailand and the Prime Minister of Cambodia. Good, that's how it should be done. Frankly I think a lot of these problems have stemmed from the fact that all these outsiders have been intervening in something they don't even understand in places they wouldn't even know where to find on a map frankly. That said, quoting further: "Anwar thanked the representatives of China and the United States for their participation." Quoting further: "China, Anwar said, has maintained close contact with Cambodia, Thailand, Malaysia, as well as other relevant countries." You know I would make some arguments that maybe some of their "close contact" in some of these contexts have may be been part of the problem leading up to this point. That said, let's accentuate the positive moving forward. We have gotten a ceasefire here. Which brings me to Reuters, reuters.com, the article is titled: Ceasefire takes effect between Thailand and Cambodia after 5-day border battle. Quoting directly: "A ceasefire between Cambodia and Thailand came into effect at midnight on Monday. They agreed to halt their deadliest conflict in more than a decade following 5 days of intense fighting that displaced over 300,000 people." Quoting further: "There were no" - this is key, I want people to really understand this because we had talks about a ceasefire and then in the early morning hours later after talks of a ceasefire, there was still further violence. Quoting directly and I think this is important: "There well no official reports of unrest from either side in the hours leading up to the ceasefire taking effect." I think that's key. This ceasefire looks genuine; it looks like it's going to stick. Quoting further: Thai acting Prime Minister Phumtham Wechayachai praised Trump for pushing the peace effort and said trade negotiations would start from a good place. Quote: "I thanked him from my heart for what we received from him and helped our country move beyond this crisis." Quoting further: "After today, the situation should de-escalate." That's another key thing. I'll repeat that: "After today, the situation should de-escalate." I go back again and quote again: There were no official reports of unrest from either side in the hours leading up to the ceasefire taking place." So that is important. That said, and again as we have seen in other contexts, there has been talk of the ceasefire only to see violence erupt later.
Now coming over here to an article from the Bangkok Post, bangkokpost.com, the article is titled: Trump to resume trade talks with Cambodia, Thailand after truce. Again, bangkokpost.com. Quoting directly: "Thailand and Cambodia agreed on Monday to halt 5 days of fighting after talks in Malaysia hosted by Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim. Envoys from China and the US were also at the negotiations, though their roles were not immediately clear." Well they were observers; we've seen that in multiple publications. That's what they were there for; they were there to observe. Quoting further: "Tensions between the Southeast Asian neighbours erupted in recent days with fresh clashes that displaced more than 150,000 civilians on both sides of their 800-kilometre border. After separate calls with the leaders of those countries on Saturday, Trump had threatened to block trade deals with them if the violence did not stop. Thailand and Cambodia could face 36% levies on Friday if agreements with the US aren't reached." Well I think that is important to provide some context, but as I have discussed in other videos, I didn't love and haven't loved that Thailand especially it's been under Trade pressure America; America is applying trade pressure toward it's oldest ally in Asia at a time when it is under pressure. It just doesn't look good; I don't love it, I'll just put it that way. That said, I am happy to see, absolutely happy to see a ceasefire. This ceasefire appears to be holding. I think that's important to note as of the time of this video and from all indications that we can see on the ground here in Bangkok and I have talked to a few people that would know, that are just personal friends and things, and they have said, "no, this looks like it is going to stick." So good news. Good news for Thailand, good news for Southeast Asia, good news for Cambodia for that matter. Good news for everybody. Hopefully this ceasefire is going to hold, and we will see an end to the violence and we can hopefully see this operate as an initial platform to have a dialogue to continue to discuss de-escalating things and coming to a longer-term broad arrangement that everybody can agree with regarding the boundaries between Thailand and Cambodia here in Southeast Asia.
Okay folks, yeah update now. I made that video; it looked like the ceasefire was sticking. Now there appears to be some data points to indicate that may not exactly be the case. Again, this is a very fluid situation so we are doing the best we can. I read an article from Thai PBS World, that is world.thaipbs.or.th. Thai Army accuses Cambodia of breaking truce. Quoting directly: "The Thai army has accused Cambodia of violating a conditional ceasefire saying clashes continued despite a deal agreed in Malaysia yesterday to end the bloody fighting between the two countries. Following peace talks in Malaysia yesterday, both sides agreed that the ceasefire would start at midnight to end the border fighting. However, Thai Army spokesman Maj. Gen. Winthai Suvaree said, "At the time the agreement took effect, the Thai side detected that Cambodian forces launched armed attacks into several areas within Thai territory." In a statement, Winthai said, Quote: "This constitutes a deliberate violation of the agreement and a clear attempt to undermine mutual trust. Thailand is compelled to respond appropriately, exercising its legitimate right to self-defense," he said. As a result, a meeting between the two countries' regional Army commanders, originally scheduled for 7.00am. has been postponed to 10.00am."
So that is the latest update that I have seen from anywhere on this issue. That's where we are at for the moment. We will certainly be keeping you updated as best we can as this very fluid situation evolves.
