Transcript of the above video: 

As the title of this video suggests, we are discussing, well we are discussing the notion that Thailand is some sort of "dead man walking" economically going into 2026, or in this first quarter of 2026. This notion and what I am going to cite here, it's all in a vein of something that I found really disconcerting in reporting of Thailand going back into the last summer, where especially during some really choppy waters where we had the acting Prime Minister Phumtham Wechayachai also notably a Communist in the past who was trying to do all sorts of things with staffing of the Interior Ministry etc., especially, and then trying to dissolve Parliament inappropriately. During all of that, at the same time we had old Fitch running around saying or implying, even though within the same article from the Bangkok Post, they were sort of implying there was something structurally amiss with Thailand's Banking system, and then in the same article said, "well actually we have done structural tests, and everything seems to be hunky-dory." There's been this like vein and this constant comparing of Thailand to Vietnam, this constant comparing of Thailand to the rest of the region saying it's the sick man of Asia, saying it's a dead man walking economically, and things; things aren't that bad. Everybody just take a chill pill for a minute, okay. Thailand has got a pretty gosh darn good economy and yeah it is a different economy than most of the other jurisdictions here in Southeast Asia, most notably because it's not developing, it's developed, and that's just one thing - it's very funny to me, when you look back on development, yeah in certain ways Thailand I won't say mimicked, but very much took a page from the West book for a long period of time, but they have developed along the same trajectory as most any Western country. Nobody walks around saying, "Is Canada a dead man walking?" Now I understand, Canada and Thailand are not the exact same in terms of demography and economics and things of that nature, but in terms of development, I mean compare the infrastructure of Thailand to the United States; compare the infrastructure of Thailand to the UK, or Europe - or certain countries in Europe - nobody sits around saying "Italy is a dead man walking" and again I find this sort of coverage a bit disingenuous, it's concerning. 

While I have got a minute here, we are going to have some more news this week from Checkpoint Benji, so over on the news service. I will go ahead and put a link in the description below just to the channel and when we go ahead and put up some more videos over there, I'll let people know in future, videos, but just FYI, be prepared for that. Also the folks eagerly anticipating bwh.club, I'm still building the website. It's taking longer than I initially thought it likely would, but I just was on the phone last week to the developers; I think we are almost done, so I'll get back to y'all on that one. Finally, while I'm plugging here, might as well know, my better half and I set up a restaurant here in downtown Bangkok. Pancake Palace, as the name implies, breakfast anytime, American style diner food. We do have a good English breakfast as well if you are interested in that. We also have hamburgers, cheeseburgers, chilli bowls, also tacos. We now have Tacos on the menu if you interested. So if you are interested in coming by to just have some good old fashioned American Diner style food, please feel free to come by. Links are in the description below, Pancake Palace. 

Getting back to this though. I thought of making this video after reading an article in the Bangkok Post, bangkokpost.com, the article is actually titled: Dead Man Walking. That's just the title of the article so that's why I went ahead and used the thumbnail from the movie with Susan Sarandon and Sean Penn, Dead Man Walking, because it seemed pretty symmetrical. Do I think Thailand is a "dead man walking?" No, far from it, far from it. That said, quoting directly: "Being labeled the "sick man of Asia" has forced Thailand to reassess the long-standing problems caused by its "chronic economic illness". What chronic economic illness? What? Seriously. Thailand took a major hit in 1997. They were on their back because frankly the shenanigans and chicanery of Global Banking “Operators”, let me just call it that, and they got their act together. They managed to pay off the IMF loans that they needed, and they sustained themselves. They kept the Thai Baht freely negotiable on the open market. I mean what more did you want from them? They've inoculated their banking system against a lot of these problems, and they have continued to develop and grow. So this "chronic economic illness"; come on! Quoting further: "However, as the new Government is expected to mirror the previous administration," - yeah, I like this too. There has been this move in certain segments of the press here, seemingly Bangkok Post, kind of being at least in the English language press, at the forefront of this, to somehow make the kind of mini-minority administration of Anutin - which lasted less than 90 days, I don't even know that it lasted 60 days - to sort of make that as if it was like a real Parliament. Like it was elected and it went through a full term. No, it basically came in to correct a bunch of really outlandish stuff that occurred over the summer and then basically dissolved itself in order to have a new election. And yet it is now portrayed as somehow, we have all this baggage dragging over from that Administration. Well it lasted less than a semester of a child's school. I mean yeah, they did a few things, but it wasn't a lot. Mostly what they did is in my opinion, they corrected a lot of things that the prior Administration really got wrong. Now matters pertaining to malice and intent and things like that, I am not going to get into but let's just say corrections were made, and then they dissolved. So what are you talking about when it's like "oh they mirror the previous administration." Mirror it in what way? This incoming Parliament, presumably this incoming Government, the likely Coalition that looks like maybe coming about because of the past election, it's a totally different thing. That mini-administration if you will was in my mind purely there to correct, dissolve and everybody to just get on with it. So to sort of say that there's sort of a mirroring of substantive policies or something, I find that disingenuous. That said, quoting further: "The business sector doubts whether the repackaged leaders can rouse the country from its economic slumber, particularly regarding needed structural reforms." But all those leaders wanted to see us have a Digital Wallet that was going to track and trace all of our money, and then would put us into further debt to the tune of 20% debt to GDP ratio, for what? Magic bean money? Is that what they prefer in terms of structural reform? Because that was a horrible idea. Quoting further: "Thailand actually risks becoming a "dead man" if the new government faces its selection of Cabinet members on political quotas, said Kriengkrai Thiennukul, Chairman of the Federal Federation of Thai Industries." Now that one, fair enough, fair point, the point being too much politicization of Cabinet posts, too much of it being based on "horse trading" could lead to bad outcomes practically in the broad sense of the country, and in the economy specifically. Okay, I can see that; that brings up a fair point. That said, quoting further: "He said the business sector is gripped with concerns over how the Thai economy will be restored." So this notion that the economy can somehow be restored, I mentioned the Digital Wallet before, all of this springs from a very neo-Keynesian way of thinking insofar as it is the Government's job to come in and reform the economy. To my mind, it's this incoming Parliament's job to make laws that are in accordance with the popular will. If those laws get enacted, it then becomes the government's job to enforce those laws; it's also the government's job to create courts where disputes can be adjudicated. I don't think, and I think this has borne out over time, it's not the Government's job to interfere and intervene directly in the economy; it's not the government's job to restore the economy. The economy is the economy; people get up and work and they do their thing. Politics is politics. Politics, you create laws to govern the nation. And this notion of this type of intervention, the extreme version of this, is something like the Digital Wallet where "oh we're going to indebt the country a bunch more under the notion that that will stimulate things, but in reality, the debt will just drag us down over time. Meanwhile, we get the Digital Wallet where they get to track and trace everything we do, and that's supposed to somehow be a benefit. All these “structural reforms”, like bringing in OECD and the World Economic Forum people to tell us all how we are not doing everything right even though the Thais have been able to keep their own counsel, and maintain their own sovereignty, maintain their own economy, frankly in a way that is the envy of the West and is the reason we are seeing Westerners pouring in here. But meanwhile, the press covers this as if Thailand has got the problem and we all need help from our technocratic benefactors. It's really, really nonsensical if you really break it down, and you know the history of how it has always worked out here. Now look, public-private partnerships in the very innocuous sense of the term, the Thais do it the Thai way. I get it. Public-Private partnerships do things here that do cause a great deal of benefit, but it's this notion that somehow the government at the end of the day is who we need to run to, to "restore" the economy, that's just ridiculous, and in fact that way lies damnation; that's how you end up with a staggered, look at the West. This isn't difficult. We know where these paths lead. Why would we want to take Thailand down any of these roads? 

Quoting further: " Under the Bhumjaithai Party-led coalition government as negotiations between political parties look set to be mainly based on how many of which Cabinet seats Parties will get in exchange for their support of Anutin Charnvirakul as Prime Minister. Well one, as if that's ever been any different in the past. Where was the Bangkok Post talking about this "concern" back in '23 when immediately came on board the notion, we were going to get a Digital Wallet. And then unilaterally Srettha is running around France saying they are going to illegalise Cannabis and stuff. Where was talk of any of this then? I like it that now we have had an election, things are moving forward and "oh well, this is real concerning that there is “horse trading” going on for Cabinet positions." Isn't that what they do? Isn't that always the case? It's kind of the default position of politicians. They get in there and they jockey around, figure out their most advantageous position, try to get it. That's what we're seeing. Now again, they bring up a fair point. If this is too politicized, too much “horse trading”, it could have negative implications on the economy. I see that, but again it's being framed in such a way that, again, just going back to the sort of Keynesianism and just Government oversight, Government scrutiny, Government control. Thailand's greatest strength is her Thai-ness, her free-ness; Thai means free. Her liberty.

The other thing, as I will get to here in a minute, they keep using GDP to say Thailand has got a problem. It's purely a metric of bank credit. Nobody's even looking at the rest of the broader economy and that economy does not need to be scrutinized, does not need to be subject to a “Digital Wallet” so they can track and trace everyone. It needs to be left alone. That economy is what saved Thailand in the aftermath of '97. That said, quoting further: "Foreign media reports labelled Thailand "the sick man of Asia". Well consider the source. Foreign media outlets, from which countries? And from which countries that have stagnant growth rates that are completely indebted to their ears, that are overrun by foreign nationals that they can't even hardly deal with. Which one of those governments says Thailand is the "sick man of Asia"? Quoting further: "underscoring the need for urgent reform to deal with a" - urgent reform. And as I will get to here in a moment, expanding the tax base is part of that reform. That said, "urgent reform to deal with a range of economic problems that have long hindered GDP growth." So reading that and you have got to take that into context. You have to understand that GDP is a function of bank credit. It only looks at that part of the economy within the banking system. There is a ton of Thailand's economy that is not within the banking system; it cannot be measured using the GDP metric. So the GDP metric to begin with is not fit to purpose. It's not measuring what we think it's measuring, but it does allow certain people to say that the economy is one way, even if it not necessarily is that way, so that they can then make, they can sort of posit all of these things as a "solution". It is very much akin to a straw man argument. That being said, quoting further: "The International Monetary Fund, the World Bank and the Joint Standing Committee on Commerce, Industry and Banking all published a dim economic outlook for Thailand in 2026." Yeah, going back to Fitch, they were saying all kinds of things about Thailand's banking structural problems and then in the last paragraph, the same article said, "well actually, we tested all that and structurally it looks pretty sound." This thing, it's the same kind of thinking because they all talk, "oh, they have a dim outlook", and then it'll turn out - I did a video on this recently - where oh wait a minute, it turned out that the GDP was actually way higher than what these prognosticators said it was going to be”. So why is that? Could it be because again there is an agenda out there amongst those who would like to impose undue foreign influence on Thailand to make Thailand look worse off economically than she actually is, in order to come in and impose these "solutions" which end up with again biometrics being done in connection with banking. Capping out people's ability to move capital around, which will have the negative impact of seizing up liquidity and slowing down velocity of money which is the last thing you want in a vibrant economy. On top of that, are the solutions to bring everything under the rubric or the scrutiny of the technocrats and then they will say, "oh we have had economic growth", when in reality you are now just seeing the real economy for what it is and now they are simply able to scrutinize tax, also regulate or just make illegal, certain things that people were doing in the normal course of business. All of this has the smell of flim flam. Again, it's a false argument. It's the notion that, "Oh Thailand's GDP is really bad. That means everything is terrible." Well not necessarily, and when you see the crowds of people, again pouring into Thailand to live here now even, that's not indicative of a place people don't want to live; that's not indicative of a place that's having severe structural economic problems, okay. I know the difference. I've been here a while. 

That said, quoting further: "The council identified several policies that could help the economy: developing logistics infrastructure, promoting investments for both domestic and foreign investors, decentralising authority for regional economic development," - actually, and that was one that this notion of devolution or allowing local administrative, like provincial offices and things, to have a more hands-on, I won't say access, but using a more hands-on approach at the local level to actually administer law, law enforcement, or even policy. Yeah, it's not a terrible idea because different places in Thailand have totally different needs. And it is kind of a good idea to let locals kind of figure out how to do things - that said: "and streamlining procedures to reduce legal barriers."

Okay, this notion of reducing legal barriers. Doug Casey, I had the very great pleasure of meeting some time ago, once brought up the fact that he liked to go to countries where he could get a rigged game. Now for a foreigner in Thailand, you're never going to get a rigged game really, unless it's against you, but for the Thais, they very much have set up a rigged game in their favour if you will. I'm not saying that in the pejorative sense; it's called Protectionism. Oh my God, a dirty word. Yeah, they are insulating their local labour pool. They want to protect their internal economy. It is a function of national sovereignty. A country gets to decide who comes there; a country gets to decide who gets to do what kind of business in their jurisdiction, if those people aren't from their jurisdiction. That's one of the basic tenets of sovereignty. And quite frankly I think some of the protective measures that the Thais have taken on are good; they help Thailand. If anything, the West should be taking a page from Thailand's book on protecting its local economy. I'm sure Trump is well aware of this because he's trying to re-shore industries that unfortunately America has been losing for decades, because of the notion "well, we're going to offshore." Not doing what's right for the local economy, not doing what's necessarily in the best interest or the national interest, has led the problems in the West economically. Thailand doesn't have those problems yet because it has not imposed these kind of policies that result in the hollowing out of its own economy and the undermining of the labour capability and labour remuneration capability of its own people. I'm not saying everything in Thailand is perfect, but they got it right on a lot of this stuff. That said, quoting further: "Although the National Economic and Social Development Council reported better fourth-quarter economic growth in 2025 than expected" - oh, you mean even in light of going back to quote again: "International Monetary Fund, World Bank and Joint Standing Committee on Commerce, Industry and Banking all made an economic outlook for 2025", and Thailand exceeded it? I like how that's not being presented as the main point of this story. That lead is being buried in order to further the narrative that Thailand has got a dim economic outlook, notwithstanding the fact that oh, surprise, we did pretty well in '25; better than expected, but oh dim! Come on.

Quoting further: "Thai GDP expansion still lags behind the regional peers." Well again, you're using a metric that does not incorporate all the economic inputs that are actually happening in Thailand, and two, yes, I'm sure Thailand, their GDP isn't just skyrocketing compared to a jurisdiction where, if you put a laundromat into that place, you will see GDP growth go up by 5% in and of itself, okay? And I'm not naming any countries because I don't want to sound like I'm being pejorative, but there are other far less developed jurisdictions in this region than Thailand.

Again, this is the point I think needs to be made more and more. Thailand is a developed country; it's not underdeveloped and it's not developing. It's developed. A developed country is going to have less skyrocketing GDP growth, because they have already built a lot of the infrastructure that is needed in order to maintain themselves, but a lot of the infrastructure also that causes that type of skyrocketing. In short, they are already a sophisticated economy and to compare them against an economy that is in much more of a developing stage is disingenuous. It's like comparing apples and bowling balls; they are not the same thing. That said, quoting further: "In the fourth quarter, Thailand's economy expanded by 2.5% year-on-year, rebounding from 1.2% in the previous quarter and exceeding market expectations." Again, what a surprise and again this lead is being buried, that Thailand actually did better in 2025 than expected. Instead it is being touted as "oh, there is a grim dim outlook." Meanwhile by the way, if the UK or the US or Canada, or someplace in Europe, had the kind of GDP - and I mean real GDP, not books cooked, quantitative easing, and we turned fast food jobs, we now tabulate them as manufacturing jobs, and all kinds of chicanery that goes on, Bureau of Labour statistics and whatnot - if any of those countries had the GDP of Thailand, they would be shouting it from the rooftops, okay. But meanwhile, Thailand has the GDP she has out here, and it's treated as if she's getting left behind or something. 

Quoting further: "Given persistent structural problems and mounting economic headwinds, he said comprehensive reforms are needed to raise Thailand's long-term growth potential" - yeah, "long-term growth potential such as improving public-sector efficiency" - fair enough on that point maybe - quoting further: "broadening the tax base" - yeah, saddling businesses with a bunch of new taxes! That's the way to cause your economy to skyrocket. What was it Churchill said? That's like standing in a bucket and trying to lift yourself up. Broadening the tax base? Now we see, now we see what the objectives are. And it's all shrouded in this, "oh, we want to see Thailand really succeed economically", when in reality she's been succeeding, and the real reason behind all of this is they just want more money. The control freaks just want more money to be able to tell people what to do. My response to that is you shouldn't have shut down the economy for 3 years under COVID. That said, quoting further: "streamlining regulations to support investment, revising outdated laws, tackling corruption, enhancing agricultural competitiveness, and strengthening the rule of law. Confidence has begun to translate into capital inflows." Yeah, so what's the problem? Quoting further: "particularly in data centre projects, where Thailand's strong infrastructure, especially reliable power and water supply, offers a competitive edge," said Ms. Chavinda. Institutional investors are increasingly optimistic, citing significant foreign fund flows not seen in years."

So again, what's the problem? It reminds me of that Fitch article from during the summer where they said, "oh Thailand's banking system; got to watch out!" And then the end paragraph was "well actually we tested it structurally and everything; it seems fine." Look, if I haven't put a fine enough point on this, I don't see Thailand as the "sick man" of anything; I don't think it's a "dead man walking" anywhere. If anything, I'm highly optimistic about the future of Thailand, especially in the aftermath of the recent election and moving forward in the coming months and years. So the thing to take away from this video is, if you're looking to invest, it may not be a terrible idea to contact a legal professional, gain some insight and guidance into how best to proceed.