Transcript of the above: 

This is kind of one of our news pieces; I'm moving over to, I am reorganizing this slowly but surely. Bear with us. I do have a day job folks, like I do work, and I have a pretty high case load and I have to assist other Attorneys here in the office mostly in a management capacity as well as liaise with our accounting side, so bear with us. But yeah, I am trying to sort of move news over onto its own separate thing. We also, as I have discussed in other videos, have a paid news service. If you are interested in that, it is long form videos where I going into deeper dive discussion of local politics as well as geopolitics and regional politics here in ASEAN, geopolitics sort of around the world; how all of those things can then impact things like tax policy, immigration policy, and even financial policy, banking policy and then how that has an impact on expats here in Thailand. So if you are interested in that, please feel free to email us [email protected]. I do check those but again I have a main day job, and I have to keep up with that correspondence. I check every couple of days the media channel, excuse me, the media email to see if anybody is looking for information about the paid news service. Please keep it to [email protected] if you could, again as an email, because if you put it over to the main firm's emails; I try to keep these things compartmentalized and it is just better for all concerned if I can. So, again, as I have discussed in other videos and I have discussed in the long-form videos, I am working on a new platform. We should have that up and going either here in the 4th quarter or right at the beginning of the year and this will be a lot more streamlined. But for now, if you are interested in long form content, content through Integrity News Service, [email protected]. While I'm talking my game, we will put some photos up here as well, my better half and I set up a restaurant here in downtown Bangkok, breakfast anytime. It's called Pancake Palace, as well as American Diner style food. People ask us, "are you in direct competition with this place that seems to be only doing breakfast." No we're not only doing breakfast. I called it Pancake Palace because I just like the name of it and it is American Diner style food; it's not just breakfast all the time or exclusively. So we also have cheeseburgers, hamburgers, buffalo wings, chilli bowls. If you're interested in that, links are in the description below to come find us. We would be happy to see you at Pancake Palace. 

That said, getting into this. I have seen in the ether of the internet, I've even had people asking me directly in person in some cases, and kind of asking in an incredulous tone saying, "oh do you really think Anutin is going to dissolve the House?” or “Do you really think he is going to do all the things that he said he was going to do with regard to People Party and the Memorandum of Understanding associated with the votes that he garnered in order to form a new coalition Government and become the new Prime Minister?" Let me just speak, in this video I am going to basically focus on the issue of "will Parliament be dissolved in roughly 4 months?" And understand, it's to be dissolved, the countdown if you will starts the moment the Cabinet is installed, and the Prime Minister, i.e. Anutin, delivers the Policy Statement of the Government; so that is when the four-month countdown is supposed to begin for the dissolution of the House. And let me make my opinion clear. I have made my affinities known in the past. I'm rather optimistic and I rather like Mr. Anutin and many of the policies that he has promulgated the last few years. I also like the way he operates politically; I have made that clear in other videos. For example, I felt like that the legalization of Cannabis, the maneuvers he used to make that happen, that was something straight out of like one of my favourite books about American politics is by Robert Caro, Master of The Senate. It is about Lyndon Baines Johnson when he was in the Senate as the majority leader, actually his entire time in the Senate frankly, but as I discussed in that video, or as I have discussed in other videos, I felt like Anutin's move with regard to legalizing Cannabis was on par with that book. It was frankly masterful. I mean it utilized a mechanism that nobody really thought of in the moment, to go ahead and execute a policy that he wanted done and it resulted in it getting executed, albeit in kind of an inverted manner from what people would think, but it worked. And frankly, I think it turned out for the better for Thailand. I don't think we are wasting resources anymore chasing after it as a criminal offense and it has actually benefited the overall economy. As I have discussed in other videos, commercial retail real estate for example benefited mightily from it. Frankly I thought the last Government, particularly what I call the Rump Coalition Government which occurred after Bhumjaithai sort of withdrew from the prior coalition in the aftermath of the former Prime Minister Ms. Paetongtarn's call to Hun Sen, I felt like that everything they did in the aftermath of that was at least arbitrary and capricious and frankly, they were policies that just weren't in the best interests of the country, all things considered. As we discussed in other videos, there were 19,000 folks that had licenses by that point. To just turn around and pull the rug out from under those people I thought was just bad policy across the board. That being said, letting my biases be known I think you know overall I'm optimistic about the future of things I'll be at the fact that this thing is probably going to be only a matter of 120 days-ish around that time, that we have this actual Administration. And the question posed by this video and again a lot of farangs and things have been asking me this - by email, I've seen it in forums and things through the ether of the internet - there is this sort of cynicism that he is not going to dissolve the house. I find that very hard to believe. In fact, I think he will and for a variety of reasons, I think politics here in Thailand might result in him doing it sooner rather than later. Now let me get into this. 

I thought of making this video after reading other things but then it kind of came to a fine point, came to a head with me making this video, after reading a recent article from the Bangkok Post, bangkokpost.com, the article is titled: BJT may seek wriggle room from pact. One thing I have got to say about Bangkok Post. I am starting to really wonder what their, they report on Thaksin, I feel like is kind of overly - I think it gives that whole faction sort of more credence than they currently have. Now that said, they have also reported on their declining popularity and the decline of the influence of that faction, but there is also this implication in a lot of things that Bhumjaithai, or Anutin specifically, are trying to even wiggle out of this pact; I don't get the impression that is what is going on here at all, really. Now I am not completely naïve insofar as it is not impossible that things can change, the situation could change and it might be in that Party's interest to do something else, or they may feel is in their interest to do something else, but I really think that at least on the issue of the dissolution, we are going to see it happen. Now another issue on this is the issue of the Charter re-write which let's get into that here for a moment. Quote: "Now that the dust has settled, it appears the Bhumjaithai Party (BJT) is discreetly abandoning its promises regarding the push to rewrite the charter. Well too soon to tell on that; that's drawing an immediate conclusion in this article, when you read through it there may be some hints that the Charter itself might not get re-written but whether or not Bhumjaithai itself is trying to wiggle out of it; I don't think that you can make that conclusion based on the current data points. That said, quoting further: "A major condition in exchange for the People's Party's support for its leader's premiership bid." - Now I urge those who are watching this video, go read that article in the Bangkok Post. They get into really good analysis on the issue of the Charter re-write and that is a different issue strictly speaking from the issue of the House itself dissolving and us going into elections here in Thailand; those are two different things. Now as the Bangkok Post gets into in the analysis there, the Charter could end up not being re-written without Anutin or Bhumjaithai I should say maybe, necessarily reneging on any of their promises regarding the Charter because it is not wholly within the remit of the Prime Minister to determine whether or not a new Charter gets written. There are other bodies here in Thailand that chime in - most notably the Senate - and again it isn't fully within the remit of Bhumjaithai Party or Prime Minister Anutin to see to it that a Charter can be re-written, to get that actually to completion. Now they can throw their weight behind it and push for it, but as the article itself notes, that may not necessarily be enough. Now the article kind of gets into some cynical analysis that he may like sort of appear to be doing it but in the reality they don't really want to get it done, I can't speak to their mindset. I don't know that that is necessarily the case. But that said, again it is good analysis, some of it. I don't necessarily agree with the conclusions, but the article does a good job of fleshing out all the issues associated with a possible Charter rewrite, but I don't think it is fair to say that anybody at this point is trying to wiggle out of that one, and even if a Charter does not get rewritten, it is not necessarily for lack of a better term, Anutin's fault. He may do everything in his power to try to get it done and it may still not done because other institutions may not - for example, notably the Senate - may not, they may stifle it for example or may not take any action, and it may just not get done in the next few months. Now that said, that is a different issue from the issue of whether or not the House will be dissolved and we go to elections, which brings me to another excerpt here, quote: "The PP still has a no-confidence motion as its trump card. In that case, the Bhumjaithai would likely decide to dissolve the House early, before the four-month period stated in the MoA and call a snap election." And this is where I think especially, I have noticed foreigners who are kind of, for lack of a better term, sort of semi-aware of the state of play with regard to Thai politics and I have seen them send me emails, I have even talked to a couple of them that have said, well, they kind of like are laughing up their sleeves, and frankly I don't think they know what they are talking about frankly, that he is not going to do the election, he is just going to keep going and be in power. I don't think that is going to happen at all. One, as noted in this article, People Party could turn around and say, "you know what? We are going to do a no-confidence vote." And between their votes and the likely, what is left of the Pheu Thai camp in Parliament, there would be probably pretty strong support for a no-confidence vote under the circumstances. Two, it would be very impolitic of him to just renege like that, or the Party to just renege like that. I don't think that that will happen; just from a purely optic standpoint, it doesn't look good. More to the point that was brought up here, one, if that were to happen, might just call an election early rather than go through all of a no-confidence vote. So there is that side of things. Also, and something I don't think people are keeping in mind, Pheu Thai Party which is another factor that I think Bhumjaithai Party as well as the current Government or the incoming Government has to keep in mind, Pheu Thai is another vector of possible, another sort of adversarial vector if you will for this Party, for Bhumjaithai, and as a result, they need to make calculations based on what is best in terms of running against them in the upcoming election with Mr. Thaksin, who has been described as the “spiritual leader” of Pheu Thai or whatever, with him still in jail in the next 120 days or presumptively through the next 120 days, and frankly the support, especially in the aftermath of the leaked phone call by the last Prime Minister, the support for Pheu Thai is at a pretty low ebb right now if you look at the sort of story arc of their Party over the past roughly 10-15 years, with support for them at a rather low ebb, it actually augers better for Bhumjaithai to hold elections sooner rather than later anyway. 

So I think, as noted here in this article as well, so I think folks who are saying, "oh he is going to go ahead and not do that," and sort of laughing up their sleeve like they think they understand the mindset and they think they know something about cynical Thai politics or something like this, I think that is ill-founded. I think if anything, frankly it might be in Bhumjaithai's favour to have an election sooner rather than later. But more to the point, and the reason for the thumbnail as well, there is that great scene from the series Better call Saul which was sort of a sequel series to the show Breaking Bad where Mike Ehrmantraut is talking to this guy who has sort of newly been initiated into the criminal underworld, and he is talking to him and he is saying, "I know good criminals and bad cops," and he goes into this whole sort of back and forth like kind of explaining to him the shades of Gray and then he says, "when you make a deal with someone, you keep your word". I think that is probably going to be the mindset of this Government the next 120, 150 days as we are awaiting the installation of the Cabinet and then the subsequent 128-day countdown to the dissolution and then the presumptive elections to be held thereafter. I just don't think that there is a lot of desire in anyone's minds within the Government or frankly outside the Government presently, in the opposition to do anything other than what has been agreed to, really. Now again, the Charter rewrite is a much more complex thing. There are a lot of nuances and a lot of different sort of moving parts if you will, especially institutionally within sort of the institutional framework of the legislative bodies of Thailand that, I could see that not happening but I could see it also not happening as described in this article, and it not necessarily being because the current Coalition Party or Core Coalition Party whatever you want to call them that is currently governing did anything to thwart it. It just didn't happen because it lost sort of political momentum. 

Again difficult to predict that at this time, but at the end of the day, I think it's worth pointing out, especially to those who really don't follow Thai politics very much, this whole cynical notion going through, especially what I can see in some of the expat community, "oh, he was just paying lip service to a 4-month deadline, that's not going to happen." I don't think that is the correct read of the state of play. I think if anything, it is more likely they will dissolve the House earlier rather than wait after the four-month deadline.