Transcript of the above video: 

As the title of this video suggests, we are discussing whether or not a new Immigration Act is a foregone conclusion. There has been a lot of talk about politics here in Thailand. I myself have been following it rather closely since the new government came in; I am taking kind of a hands-off approach. They are supposed to only be in office for four months in preparation for things like a Charter rewrite and a dissolution of the House in favour of an election which again, all that remains to be seen, but I have kind of taken a hands off approach to give them a kind of a little “mini-honeymoon period” just for a minute to go ahead and get their ducks in a row and move forward with what they are doing. There is a lot of speculation out there as to what this new government will do, especially as it pertains Immigration. My personal opinion is no conclusions can be drawn at this point. I think a lot of folks are trying to draw conclusions, but I don't think it is warranted to do so. I think this Government is going to do what it feels is necessary and it is hard to say what that's going to be. 

That said, I thought of making this video after reading a recent article from the Pattaya Mail, t that is pattayamail.com, the article is titled: Not many exceptions in Thailand for working without a permit. So quoting directly: "Premier Anutin Charnvirakul recently announced that the priorities of his four-months Administration will be economic revival and domestic deprivation, together with the need to prepare for a Constitutional referendum agreed with the Opposition's People's Party." The terminology in all of this, I find it hard to call the People's Party the opposition when they voted for the Prime Minister. And they keep calling it a minority government because the People's Party opted to “remain if you will” in the Opposition and not become part of the Cabinet; well that's their choice. But we still have a majority in the Parliament the voted for the PM, and I find it, I don't know what to call People's Party and I don't know that it is even that important, the semantics of the label of them, but it is important to understand the nuances of what's going on insofar as yeah, they're in the opposition insofar as they choose to be but they did vote for this PM. That said, quoting further: "Thus major changes are not expected for now in foreign employment laws. However, after next year's elections, there are likely to be substantial updates including a wholesale rewriting of the 1979 Immigration Act." Who says? And beyond even that, okay maybe there is some talk of that. Do you know how hard it's going to be to pass an entire new Act for Immigration? I mean we haven't even seen an Act passed on Cannabis which is considered kind of a hot button issue at the moment. I am not so sure that Immigration is considered to be such a priority that a new Parliament, that would be one of the first things they wanted to tackle. If anything, I think they view it fairly low on the priority list. That said, let me quote further: "That Act reflected a Thailand preoccupied with the aftereffects of the collapse of the pro-American regimes in Vietnam, Cambodia, and Laos. A new Immigration Act reflecting today's technologies in a totally changed political world is likely next year." Again, apropos what? I mean we don't even know what the new Parliament would look like; we don't even know if we're going to see a new Parliament yet. So I mean, I think Anutin is, my personal opinion, is going to adhere to the deal that he struck and dissolve the House and go for elections for a variety different reasons, most notably I actually think it is in his Party's favour to do that. So I expect we will likely see elections sometime in quarter one of 2026. 

That said, I've discussed this in other videos, even on our paid news service, which for those who are interested in that you can email us, [email protected] and you can get information on getting on the mailing list for the paid news service. Also, while I am talking my book, my better half and I set up a restaurant here in downtown Bangkok. We've got American Diner style food as well as breakfast anytime. Name of the place is Pancake Palace. We've also got on top of breakfast and pancakes, as the name implies, we've got chilli bowls, buffalo wings, cheeseburgers, all that kind of good stuff, American Diner style food. If you are interested, links in the description below, you can come by and see us. 

Now back to what we are talking about here though. Again I have discussed this in other videos and on the paid news service. Expats, immigrants do not tend to have a constituency. I used to joke that the only two groups of people that have no constituency are expats and prisoners. Now I was talking about that in the context of expats as it pertained to their own home country because for example, I am an American who left the United States. Not a lot of politicians back in the States really care what I have to say about much of anything, because I am not really one of their constituents, notwithstanding the same the fact I still have been known to vote for them in the past, they just don't view me as overly pertinent because I don't live there anymore, especially if I stop voting, they really don't care. Now that said, it is kind of a joke, prisoners and expats, but what I am trying to explain is here in Thailand. Okay, I'm a naturalized Thai; I'm a pretty odd case, let's put it that way. There are not a lot of naturalized Thais; they don't do a lot of naturalizations in a given year. There are not a lot of folks that even get PR, Permanent Residence status here in Thailand. Thailand is not a nation that is built on an immigrants, it's just not. It is a homogenous nation made up of its own people; the name is by the way in the name, or I should say the description is in the name. It is Thailand; it is a land filled with Thais, that is basically the way to sum it up. It's not built on immigration. 

So what I am trying to say here is while the Western paradigm may say hey immigrants tend to maybe drive certain types of activities or certain behaviours from politicians, in the West that may be true. Where you see a lot of immigration for example in the United States, millions a year come in legally, and eventually become US citizens. There are also illegals who from time to time figure out some way to get themselves in the US Immigration system and eventually they become naturalized Americans. Well they become voters. Politicians are receptive to voters, even possible future voters. Here in Thailand, it is not the same situation. I just don't see there being a mass hue and cry for the plight of the immigrant here in Thailand. I'm not saying that is good, bad or indifferent, I'm just saying that is what it is. So the notion that there is going to be a real rush to change the Immigration Act in a new Parliament, whatever that Parliament's complexion is ultimately I find to be at best optimistic and probably optimistic to the point of being a little bit naïve because I just don't see that that is going to be a major priority. I mean for example we haven't even seen Cannabis laws enacted and that is considered something that is a high priority, and we haven't seen the Parliament be able to pass an Act on that. I just don't see it being a major priority to see changes, especially in favour. So that is the other thing to bear in mind here.

Okay, there may be a new Immigration Act. Who is to say it is going to be more conducive to foreigners? If anything, in the current state of the world, I could actually see the polity here in Thailand, or the Parliament that eventually comes to fruition here in Thailand, as actually being more xenophobic than we have seen in the past. They could actually say you know what? We want to make laws to make it harder to come to Thailand and live; to make it harder to come to Thailand and work, especially work. That is a hot button issue amongst Thais is foreigners coming in messing with the labour pool. That being said, I don't think that is necessarily a foregone conclusion either, but I don't think it is a foregone conclusion to think we are going to see a major overhaul in Thailand's Immigration system just because a new Parliament comes in and if we did, I don't think it's a foregone conclusion that it would necessarily be a positive thing for expats and for foreigners here in the Kingdom of Thailand.