Transcript of the above video: 

Well, the title of this video might not be very suggestive, so this is kind of a mixed metaphor; there are a few metaphors going on here all at once. One, I remember talking to an old hand out here years and years ago, an old expat who once told me, "look Thais will bend, a lot. They will go out of their way to not have confrontation; they are a very non-confrontational people, but when they snap if you will, you don't put them back into their non-confrontational mode or at least you don't do it very easily, and it doesn't generally happen until there has been some kind of reckoning on whatever the issue is generally." So again and that's an elaboration of what this person told me. They basically said, "hey, when they snap, it's done; you're dealing with a different reality when that occurs. And along the border it looks like we may have entered a factual situation where that may have occurred, at least paradigmatically where authorities here in Thailand, relevant military personnel as well as the Prime Minister himself, does not seem amenable further to conciliatory efforts if you will being made internationally in the aftermath of this recent mine explosion it appears. Let's just dig into this. 

Quoting directly from the Nation, that's nationthailand.com, the article is titled: Anutin halts Thai Cambodian Peace declaration after Thai troops hit landmine again. “Prime Minister Anutin on Monday November 10, ordered an immediate suspension of the Thai-Cambodian Peace Declaration following a landmine blast that injured Thai soldiers in Si Sa Ket, declaring his full support for the military stance. Speaking at the Royal Thai Police Headquarters, Anutin said he had been informed of the incident in the Second Army area and had instructed the Defense and Foreign Ministries to act strictly in line with Thailand's national interest. Quote: "What we have been pursuing must now be put on hold until clarity is restored," he said. Anutin emphasized that the incident demonstrated ongoing hostility against Thailand's National Security and Sovereignty. Quote: "This clearly shows that the animosity towards our nation's security has not diminished. Since that is the case, all further actions must be suspended," he said, adding that the Military and Defense Ministry would later explain the situation to the media." Quoting further: "I've already told them to proceed as they see fit. I stand with them and support every step," he added." 

Now real quick here. I was reading in another article, I didn't go ahead and cite it, but there was an article from the Bangkok Post that I was reading where they actually cited Reuters stating that this mine - see the issue with this mine, there are all these mines along the Thai-Cambodian border and the Cambodians are pretty quick to bring up the fact that look, there are all kinds of unexploded ordinance out there and they didn't mean to do it or they did not intentionally put any type of mine up along this area that this mine exploded in. I don't know if that's the case. I don't know the facts, but from the Bangkok Post article that I read citing Reuters, there appears to at least be some credible substantial evidence that this mine had been placed after the signing of this recent Peace Declaration down in Malaysia. Now again, I can't speak to the veracity of that but for those who are outside of all this sort of looking in, in this scenario that is the issue. The issue is that there seems to be a preponderance of evidence or some evidence - whatever you want to say - substantial enough evidence to suggest that this mine was placed in the aftermath of the promulgation of the Peace Declaration so that is the critical point here. It's not that there is ordinance, it's that there is a belief that this ordinance was placed after the Peace Declaration was made and therefore calls into question the veracity if you will of the Declaration itself. That seems to be the consensus; that seems to be what is concerning relevant authorities here in Thailand. 

That said, quoting further: "Government Spokesman Siripong Angkasakulkiat said the incident was unacceptable to the Thai Government, noting that the Prime Minister had endorsed the military's decision and all activities under the Joint Declaration, which had been in effect for just over a week, must be suspended for the time being. Quote: "As a result, the scheduled release of Cambodian Prisoners of War on November 12 will also be suspended," Siripong said. "The public should be assured that the Government will not yield or compromise. We have no vested interest with Cambodia. Our sole objective is to restore normalcy along the border as soon as possible." Quoting further: "He said the Government viewed the incident as a setback to efforts aimed at reducing tensions. Quote: "Given that the animosity has not decreased, all operations carried out over the past week must be paused until this matter is resolved," he added."

So, this is what went down on Monday. I have kind of held off on doing a video on this because I wanted to see how it kind of percolated or firmed up if you will. And it does not appear that the resolve, at least the Thai resolve on this issue has diminished in any way. And as evidence of that, a recent article from the Bangkok Post, bangkokpost.com, the article is titled: PM wary of US tariff hike. Quoting directly: "Thailand would seek alternative trading partners should the United States impose stronger tariff measures, following the country's suspension of the US-backed Peace Agreement with Cambodia, Prime Minister Anutin Charnvirakul said. Speaking at the National Defense College, Mr. Anutin said on Wednesday that Thailand fully complied with the 4-point peace framework to rebuild trust and peace while Cambodia failed to uphold its commitment. He said the government must now prioritise the safety and interests of Thais and leave the trade tariffs aside. The government's decision to halt the US-backed Peace Accord with Cambodia and authorized full military operations within the realm of defending national sovereignty came after a landmine blast on Monday injured Thai soldiers during a routine patrol in Huai Ta Maria in Si Saket's Kantharalak district. So I guess it is safe to say yeah this isn't decompressing. I hesitate to take say it's escalating, I don't think that's the right word, but if anything, this has stiffened Thai resolve, and going back to this notion of when Thais ‘snap’ - and I don't mean this in like a psychological, they go crazy sense - I mean when they switch gears from okay we're trying to be friendly, we're trying to be conciliatory, we're trying to do this in a non-confrontational manner, to switching gears to "you are giving us no choice but being confrontational, and we will therefore deal with you accordingly." That sounds like what we are dealing with here more and more. 

The reason for the video and the thing to take away in terms of the expat community is, I can't see we are going to see the Border open anytime particularly soon, although again, we have seen spats between Thailand and Cambodia over the years. Not impossible that it could be reopened first quarter of next year or sometime even between now and then. But again, based on the prevailing facts on the ground, I think it is imprudent to presume that at this time. That being said, I mean my only hope is that this can get resolved peacefully, but again as Mr. Anutin has pointed out, other government spokespeople have pointed out, look there is a certain point where National Sovereignty has to be defended. If indeed a landline was laid and detonated against Thai soldiers in their normal patrolling area after this Peace Declaration was promulgated, it does call into question the credibility of the Declaration in the first place. So I see the Thai's point on that insofar as it makes some sense to me. That being said, it remains to be seen how all this is going to play out, so we will certainly be keeping you updated on this channel as the situation evolves.