Transcript of the above video: 

As the title of this video suggests, we are asking the question, will Thai Tax Policy spike, well will it lead to a spike in foreigners in 2026 in January? What am I talking about here? Well for those who are unaware, back in the third quarter of 2023 there was a memo promulgated by the Tax Department here in Thailand, the Revenue Department here in Thailand, regarding taxes, how they are assessed, and how liability is then imposed with regard to making people pay. It changed effectively the way that timing of transactions could lead to effectively sidestepping assessability for taxes here in Thailand under the old system. So that came into effect January 1, 2024. I have discussed it at length in many other videos. There are a lot of foreign charlatans in the tax space that are out there talking about all of this stuff absolutely apropos of nothing; they have no business doing that as I have discussed in other videos. If you're not a Thai National, accounting, tax law, all of these matters, they fall within restricted occupations here in Thailand. It is illegal for a foreigner to even be discussing them. I put up the restricted occupations in the past; it notes the fact that even for “educational purposes”, discussing Thai Law by a foreigner is not permitted. It is in English; I'll put it in the link in the description below in fact, just for good measure. 

But that being said, the point I am trying to make with this video is how is Thai Tax Policy possibly going to lead to a spike in foreign arrivals in January of 2026? Well here's how I think it may work out. So as we have discussed, since 2024 they have been changing around the way they assess and then ultimately apply liability for taxes. One of the prongs, not the only prong, in determining whether or not somebody needs to file a tax return, or there is liability for taxes in Thailand, is whether or not somebody has been in Thailand for 180 days at a stretch. So if you have been physically present in Thailand for 180 days, then you would be considered Tax Resident for purposes of the Thai Tax Code; so let's put it that way. Now whether or not you are considered Tax Resident and whether or not any taxable events have occurred that could be assessed to apply liability to you, that's a different question. We're not necessarily talking about that. We're purely talking about just the 180-day thing because that is what I think has been stuck in many people's minds is they look at well, okay if you don't spend 180 days in Thailand then you can just sidestep the whole thing. At the end of the day that's their decision to make that determination and then to act accordingly. 

Now again, not being here for 180 days is not necessarily fully dispositive regarding liability for tax either, as it's again going to depend on underlying facts in the case. There could be a taxable event that occurred that subjects somebody to taxes notwithstanding the fact they may not have been in Thailand for 180 days. The difference in the analysis on that - people that run around and make these sort of broad statements - "everyone is subject to tax if X occurs" - that's always a telltale sign of somebody you shouldn't be listening to, just for the record. 

Now that being said, what am I talking about with regard to a spike in arrivals in January? Well I think there have been a number of folks, because I have heard from them anecdotally by email and other things, who have said look I'm just not going to do 180 days in Thailand this year until I figure out exactly what they're going to be doing with their tax policy in that country. And those folks, I talked about this in the early part of the summer going back into sort of June, July, even earlier actually, I think I talked about it even in April going into May, at the end of the day I think there were a lot less folks around starting at about June because they came in at the beginning of the year or they came in prior to January 1 of 2025, and they just started counting their days and as they got closer to 180 days, they jetted out of here, and they haven't been back. And they know that when the calendar switches over to 2026, they basically get to reset in their mind, what is their timer for tax liability. Again 180 days in and of itself is not dispositive one way or the other, and when I say 180 days, 180 days spent physically present in Thailand is not necessarily dispositive one way or the other, when it comes to tax liability; again the underlying facts in the given will drive the further analysis. But that being said, in the minds of many this 180 days is what they are seeking to avoid. I think there were many who didn't come into Thailand in the latter half of 2025 as they are waiting for the calendar to change over so that they can be 100% sure that they are not in 180 days’ worth of time within a given calendar year. 

That is the reason I think there's likely to be a spike in inbound foreign arrivals starting in January compared to other years. That being said, it remains to be seen how all this plays out, so we will certainly be keeping you updated on this channel as the situation evolves.